Wait 'Til Next Year!

I apparently made a dubious prediction (here):

Besides, if de Blasio is anything like Obama, he'll replace stop and frisk with drone strikes.

Not Paying Enough?

“If there’s a talent shortage, it means you’re not paying enough, right?”

If we ban fracking, any resulting fuel shortage means we're not paying enough?

\(\bf\LaTeX\) vs. Word

According to research by psychologists, a controlled experiment of \(\rm\LaTeX\) vs. Word found that \(\rm\LaTeX\) users were slower and made more mistakes. There are many things I could say about this but others have already said most of it, so I will make only a few points.

First, they had pathetically-small sample sizes (10 in each group). This might even be related to their testing method, since they apparently wanted research published as fast as possible and the time needed to gather and test an adequate sample would interfere with that. (In other words, this is the scholarly equivalent of an all-nighter.)

Second, it looks like they didn't test the propensity to use \propto where \alpha belongs, or vice versa (the basis for this tweet).

Third, consider the following objection:

For anybody who has experience with both systems, it would be trivial to set up examples where MS Word utterly fails and LaTeX shines:

• Set up 50 numbered equations, refer to them throughout the text, then change the equation order.

• Have figures and their captions float to appropriate locations at the top or bottom of pages.

• Change the order of figures in a document and fix all references to those figures.

Word supporters can reply by pointing out that it's possible to have soft-coded cross references and citations in Word. On the other hand, I only know this because it sometimes goes wrong (i.e., missing reference error messages where the cross reference belongs). On the gripping hand, those soft-coded cross references are used very rarely (i.e., most of the time when I check references in Word files in the course of my day job, they're hard coded), which might mean they're even harder to use than in \(\rm\LaTeX\).

Fourth, and most important: The article ends with:

And, second, preventing researchers from producing documents in LaTeX would save time and money to maximize the benefit of research and development for both the research team and the public.

In other words: We have ways to make you use Word. This is what is meant by Nudge. This is what we libertarians are talking about when we warn of the disadvantages of depending on grants. This is the problem with assuming that disagreement means the Other Side isn't fully informed. The step after that is to decide for others based on what they would have chosen only if they were Rational Like Us.

Finally, arrogance is not limited to physicists or engineers.

Addendum 1: Instead of Nudge, maybe the right term is Prick.

Addendum 2: I have an abridged version of this post at Small Sample Watch.

Free Trade?

According to J. R. Nyquist:

I believe the course of events is dictated by a Leninist and Stalinist political culture which has grown out of the precedents of czarism and Bolshevism, involving a bag of tricks in which six elements are used to achieve political and economic results: (1) provocation; (2) divide and conquer; (3) infiltration of the enemy camp; (4) disinformation; (5) controlled opposition; (6) and strategic deception. Various special formations and ideological sub-weapons have been developed by Moscow to amplify the working power of these six elements, including organized crime, drug trafficking, international terrorism, national liberation movements, revolutionary Islam, free trade, global warming, feminism, the homosexual movement, gun control and multiculturalism.

Free trade? Sometimes the right wing really is nuts.

I won't more than mention that restrictions on carbon emissions will cut into Russian exports or that any nation with Siberia in it stands to gain from global warming.

At least he didn't mention immigration.

Explaining the Wisdom of the Crowd

I'm sure my fellow anti-social malcontents have heard of “the Wisdom of the Crowd” and that the first reaction of most of us was skepticism. (How can you prevent groupthink? Aren't speculative bubbles a counterexample?) I'd like to give a mathematical explanation of this.

Let us assume we have a continuous distribution of estimates in which the median and the Truth differ (see figure below). We are certainly not assuming that the median is infallible. In this figure, the dark areas represent the opinions of people who are further away from the Truth than the median. Half of those opinions are on the other side of the median from the Truth. (For every contrarian, there is an opposite contrarian.) In addition, there are opinions that go too far in the direction of the Truth. (You can usually find people who make your opinions seem moderate, no matter how cracked you may seem.) What this means is that at least half the population will have opinions that are more wrong than the median … and you are probably one of them.

As a specific example, I'm dubious about the Linear No-Threshhold theory of radiation damage. The opposite contrarians would be the people who think the Petkau Effect implies low doses of radiation are more dangerous than the linear theory predicts. The contrarians who might be going too far are the people who think that there's proof that radiation hormesis implies low doses of radiation are good for you.

Apparent counterexamples

Speculative bubbles aren't a counterexample. There is no reason to buy when you agree with the median opinion, as represented by the market price. On the other hand, the people buying during a bubble might think they're agreeing with the median opinion (“everybody knows the market's going up”) but are mistaken. It's also worth noting that selling short during a bubble is also risky since “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Another apparent counterexample is from the late Hal Finney: an opinion cascade. In an opinion cascade, everybody adjusts their opinion to that of the apparent majority, producing a situation in which the first few people to express an opinion have a disproportionate influence. One possible way to stop this:

It might be best to express what your personal analysis says while simultaneously adjusting your private opinions (which might be revealed in your actions) closer to the opinions of the majority.

There's another reason to be dubious about following the median estimate. The median opinion (at least in this society) disagrees with it. That might have enabled Western Civilization to outcompete more conformist civilizations. On the other hand, that might be a matter of contrarianism being a public-goods problem (also from Hal Finney):

Most people would become more accurate by shifting their opinions towards the consensus average. But this probably would cause social harm, in that we all benefit from having a wide variation of opinion and debate in society.

It may be one reason why society encourages individualism and thinking for yourself. It is harmful to individuals but beneficial for society.

This is a classic public goods problem. Are you going to do what is good for yourself, suppress your individualism and accept the group consensus? Or are you going to accept the social propaganda to think for yourself, even though you will be less accurate?

Again the best solution might be express what your personal analysis says while simultaneously adjusting your private opinions closer to the opinions of the majority. Just don't let anybody catch you applying for tenure while decrying insulation from the market … or dodging a draft while defending an unpopular war … or criticizing racism while moving to an all-white neighborhood … or flying around the world to global-warming conferences … etc. (I had an additional discussion of that type of hypocrisy here.)

Digression: the trouble with tradition

Opinion cascades are a major problem with tradition. If the people in each generation adjust their opinions to the average of earlier generations, the first few will have a disproportionate effect. On the other hand, rejecting tradition entirely means getting your opinions from just one generation in the present.

On the gripping hand, every time there's an improvement in meme storage, the generation after also has a chance to get its say. Let's take Judaism as a typical tradition: The invention of the alphabet was followed by the Torah; the invention of postal systems (which made collaboration between distant scholars possible) was followed by the rest of the Old Testament; the invention of books divided into pages (which made large books usable) was followed by the Talmud; the invention of paper was followed by Maimonides organizing Jewish law; the invention of printing was followed by the Shuchan Aruch; the invention of the Internet …

The difference between median and mode

Some types of contrarianism might be worthwhile. For example, a large fraction (I hope it's still a minority) of the public believes that Columbus discovered the world is round in 1492. In the real world, the fact that the Earth is round was discovered around 2000 years earlier. If most people don't believe that, the median estimate for “when did people discover the world is round?” will be less than 1492 but the mode is likely to be 1492. If contrarianism is a matter of being skeptical about the accuracy of the mode instead of being skeptical about the accuracy of the median, it's likely to be worthwhile.

On the other hand, sometimes the Official Truth really is true and the contrarians are wrong. For example, the number of deaths caused by the Fukushima meltdown is likely to be at or close to zero. The mode estimate probably agrees with that but the median might be much higher. You can think of the mode as the estimate by the “sheeple” (who are sometimes right).

Cross-posted from my Netcom/Earthlink site.

Left-Wing Beliefs and Last and First Men

A large fraction of left-wing beliefs can be explained by the dystopian SF novel (as far as the near future is concerned) Last and First Men by Olaf Stapledon. Many leftists think our present is the same as the future in that novel.

• Communism in Russia failing because it wasn't Communist enough? Check.
• Evil America taking over the world? Check.
• Capitalist civilization using up all fossil fuels with no substitutes developed or any evidence of foresight? Check.
• Nuclear energy turned out to be ineffective as a substitute for fossil fuels but is supported by government propaganda anyway? Check.
• A nuclear accident destroys almost all life on the planet? Check.

And that's just the first five chapters.

I was reminded of this by Moe Lane's dissection of Naomi Klein's ignorance of dystopian fiction.

Explaining Net Neutrality

One way to look at Left vs. Right in politics is that the Left thinks that the State makes things go and the Right thinks that the State makes things stop. Since ISPs make things go, they must be governments in LeftWorld. If it's necessary to stabilize any tendency for a few content wholesalers to hog bandwidth, anything done to stop that is therefore not government action.

My earlier attempts to figure out what net-neutrality advocates are thinking can be found here.

Blaming Deregulation from an Alternate Timeline

According to Elizabeth Sweet, “toys are more divided by gender now than they were 50 years ago.” The weird part is that she blames deregulation … without citing any actual regulations that were repealed. (I won't more than mention that, in the early part of the period, the Hays code was still in effect and any regulations would have been anti-feminist.) This goes beyond the assumption “that all good things come from regulations and if [an] unregulated system is good it must be due to the regulations yet to be passed.” In this case, the regulations were never passed in this timeline. Apparently, a deregulation campaign in another timeline caused the increased in gendered toy advertising.

As for why there was a change … I can think of several possible explanations: the Roe effect, more toy-buying decisions by men, more toy-buying decisions by children, etc.

Applied Bayesianism

According to Walter Russell Mead:

For liberals, these are bleak times of hollow victories (Obamacare) and tipping points that don’t tip. For examples of the latter, think of Sandy Hook, the horrific massacre in Connecticut that Democrats and liberals everywhere believed would finally push the American public toward gun control. Two years later, polls show more Americans than ever before think it’s more important to protect gun access than to promote gun control.

Sandy Hook isn’t the only example. There was the latest 2014 IPCC report on climate change that was going to end the debate once and for all. The chances for legislative action on climate change in the new Congress: zero or less. There was Ferguson and the Garner videotape showing the fatal chokehold, both of which set off a wave of protests but seem unlikely to change public attitudes about the police. There was the Senate Intelligence Committee “torture report” that was going to settle the issue of treatment of detainees. Again, the polls are rolling in suggesting that the public remains exactly where it was: supportive of “torture” under certain circumstances. And of course there was the blockbuster Rolling Stone article on campus rape at UVA, the story that, before it abruptly collapsed, was going to cement public support for the Obama administration’s aggressive attempt to federalize the treatment of sexual harassment on campuses around the country.

The standard left-wing take on this is: This proves wingnuts ignore evidence! (My earlier comments on the propensity of leftists to claim “wingnuts” ignore evidence can be found here.)

On the contrary, such news items have no effect on our opinions because we expect them. We expect occasional reports of massacres in “gun-free” zones. We expect to see reports of police brutality. According to Bayes Theorem, new evidence that was regarded as highly probable in advance should have little effect.

Question: What are Leftists expecting along similar lines? They expect to see reports of sex scandals and reports of the Mid-east falling apart. What else are they expecting?

When Evidence Stops

The American Spectator and Pajamas Media have recently been sending sponsored ad-email for nutritional supplements with an interesting tactic: The email will start with a heavily-footnoted discussion showing that nutrient X is Very Important. It will then continue with a discussion (with little or no evidence cited) that nutrient X can be best obtained from the sponsor's brand of supplements. Hmmmm…

What Would a Similar List Look Like for Written SF?

This list of the top 100 SF characters is from TV and movies. What would a similar list look like for written SF? The top ten might be:

1. Victor Frankenstein: the Mad Scientist archetype (megalomaniac division)
2. Mr. Cavor: The Mad Scientist archetype (nerdy division)
3. Hari Seldon: the sane scientist archetype
4. Lazarus Long: the longevity archetype
5. D. D. Harriman: the world-saving tycoon archetype
6. John Wainwright: the mutant superman archetype
7. Kimball Kinnison: the action hero archetype
8. Tweel: the friendly extraterrestrial archetype
9. SPD-13: the friendly robot archetype
10. Gnut (also known as Gort): the extraterrestrial trying to save us from ourselves archetype

At first, I had Karellen as No. 10 until I recalled Gnut came first.

Explaining an Apparent Contradiction

On the one hand, later marriage is correlated with increased marital stability. On the other hand, fewer sexual partners is also correlated with increased marital stability. (Both claims seen here.) One possible explanation is that waiting until later to have any sex is correlated with increased marital stability.

On the other hand, maybe higher IQs are correlated with increased marital stability.

Hiring at Google?

Apparently, the people doing the current hiring at Google have said they found that expensive degrees don't predict success, GPAs don't predict success, and asking interviewees if they can solve puzzles doesn't predict success. Would a coin toss help?

Their claim of what did predict success:

For every job, though, the No. 1 thing we look for is general cognitive ability, and it's not IQ. It's learning ability. It's the ability to process on the fly. It's the ability to pull together disparate bits of information. We assess that using structured behavioral interviews that we validate to make sure they're predictive.

This sounds familiar. According to Marvin Minsky:

No, no; your trouble is that you're confusing a thing with itself!

By the way, Google also regards “intellectual humility” as desirable. That might mean the ability to admit being wrong when confronted by evidence. It might also mean a reluctance to tell an echo chamber they're all wrong. Are the engineers who realized that “alternative energy” was a waste of time and money still working for Google?

How to Stop the “Three Felonies per Day”

Pass a law making all citizens honorary policemen. It's as simple as that.

Part III of Do You Believe in Γ0?

The first two parts are here and there.

The late Edward Nelson did not believe in Γ₀ or even in numbers:

The famous saying by Kronecker that God created the numbers, all else is the work of Man, presumably was not meant to be taken seriously. Nowhere in the book of Genesis do we find the passage: And God said, let there be numbers, and there were numbers; odd
and even created he them, and he said unto them, be fruitful and multiply; and he commanded them to keep the laws of induction.

This had a peculiar effect: When impredicative definitions are completely rejected (including any belief in infinite sets), it's impossible to prove that exponentiation is a total function. In other words, we have no rigorously-logical reason to believe in exponential growth. Malthusians sometimes accuse a critic of being an “exponential function denier” but here we have a real one.

When you start trying to find out about eccentric theories, you have no idea of how deep the proverbial rabbit hole goes … or is it an anti-rabbit hole?

But wait, there's more:

In addition to disbelieving in the natural numbers, he disbelieves in the reduction of the wave packet, political correctness, and the Big Bang, but he believes in the Holy Spirit.

I'm reminded of Paul Gordan's statement:

Das ist nicht Mathematik. Das ist Theologie.

I suppose this means Edward Nelson wasn't Russian Orthodox.

Conservatives:Academia::Women:Computer Programming

One possible reason for the decline in women majoring in computer science is the belief that the field as a whole is hostile to women. Similarly, one possible reason for the lack of conservatives in academia is the belief that the career as a whole is hostile to conservatives. The existence of a corner or two that really is hostile doesn't mean that hostility is found all over.

On the other hand, attempts to respond to perceived hostility can create real hostility.

Internet Explorer Can Block the Vindicosuite Redirect

For a few hours, attempts to view blogspot were redirected to vindicosuite on Kindle, Firefox, and Chrome. The problem appears to be over.

Following the Establishment without Knowing

How many high-school students asking “What will I get out of learning this?” realize that they're following the the heart of the Establishment?

In other news, the anti-Establishment people showed their tolerance with the following message via Twitter:

You are blocked from following @trutherbot and viewing @trutherbot's Tweets.

Hmmm… Maybe that's the answer to “What will I get out of learning this?” You will be able to understand the context of Trutherbot's nonsense. That might even be a plausible college-level course: Internet Fallacies.

Has Progress Stalled?

According to many pessimists (example here), progress has stalled. As far as I can tell, the progress that is occurring is not particularly important because:

• Technology A is not evidence that progress is occurring because it is a purely theoretical idea with no possible products.
  Theoretical example: the “ems” Robin Hanson speculates about.
• Technology B is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer purely theoretical but it is still confined to laboratories.
  Actual example: Detecting extra-solar planets.
• Technology C is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer confined to laboratories but it is still only used for occasional stunts.
  Actual example: IBM's Watson.
• Technology D is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer only used for occasional stunts but it is still only affordable by giant organizations.
  Actual example: Planetary exploration by robots.
• Technology E is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer only affordable by giant organizations but it is still unaffordable for individuals who aren't mind-bogglingly rich.
  Actual example: Space tourism.
• Technology F is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer unaffordable for individuals who aren't mind-bogglingly rich but it is still beyond the wallet of most people on Earth.
  Actual example: 3D printing.
• Technology G is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer beyond the wallet of most people on Earth but it hasn't actually progressed; it has merely gotten cheaper (and is also used for very undignified purposes).
  Actual example: this blog.

“Government” Is Simply the Name We Give to the Things We Choose to Do Together

The above cliche is the source of two of the most nonsensical ideas around:

1. An organization that can enable people to do things together is a government and therefore must be subject to democratic restraints.
2. Violence is not part of the essential nature of government and it's possible to be pro-government without getting the blame for government violence.

THIS IS AN OUTRAGE!

China is starting pun control. If they take over ICANN, we must start devising slogans now:

• When puns are outlawed, only outlaws will have puns!
• Puns don't annoy people; people annoy people!
• They can have my puns when they pry my keyboard out of my cold dead fingers!

What's the Party Line This Week?

It's a bit annoying to keep track of political opinions that change every week. I've mostly noticed this on the Left. For example:

• Is the Left for or against IQ tests this week?
• Is the Left for or against the War on Some Drugs this week?
• Is the Left for or against trusting Science this week?

Recently, I've found a similar question for the Right:

• Is the Right for or against immigrants taking the place of “Real” Americans this week?
• Is the Right for or against allowing locals to keep strangers away this week?

Same bulshytt, different side.

Neoreactionary Society and Dysgenics

On the one hand, neoreactionaries believe in reviving the traditional society (with a hereditary aristocracy and the ability to execute heretics) that governed much of the human race for the past ten thousand years. On the other hand, they also believe in eugenics, especially for the purpose of increasing brain power. On the gripping hand, the traditional-society era also saw shrinking brain sizes. For that matter, brain sizes having been coming back up in the less traditional society of the past few centuries. Wait a moment …

I'm not sure why the shrinkage occurred. Is it because the most successful men were Pointy-Haired Bosses of yesteryear? (ObSF: the Sooners in Brightness Reef by David Brin) Is it because the brightest people were burnt at the stake?

If neoreactionaries argue the same way leftists do, they will no doubt claim that traditional society wasn't traditional enough.

Did This “Study” Actually Exist? The Answer

The study discussed here (from there) turned out to exist. I still cannot find the actual publication but the reference seems detailed enough for it to exist.

As far as I can tell, there does not seem to be a control group in the study. In addition, there were several dietary changes and they may have focused on on irrelevant ones. Changes in micronutrients sound more plausible than changes in food additives. After all, the students would later go home and eat Twinkies but the school meal might have been their only meal with real food. One of the authors was later involved in a study that did have a control group and found that micronutrients are important.

I won't more than mention that, if I recall correctly, the use of mind-altering chemicals was dropping rapidly in New York City at the time. Maybe second-hand toke had an effect.

I have started a log at Ask for Evidence but their system appears to be down now.

The Latest in Ignorant Paranoia

The NRC got around to releasing the radiation readings for Florida produce in the aftermath of the Fukushima meltdown over three years later and low-information environmentalists are going nuts:

Fukushima fallout on vegetation in South Florida exceeded gov’t notification limit by over 1,000% — Nearly triple the highest level reported anywhere on West Coast

First, the notification level is not the same as the danger level. It merely means it's enough to be reasonably sure it's out of the ordinary. Second, it's only the I-131 level that was extraordinary. The total radioactivity was within the normal range. For example, the highest radioactivity level mentioned in the article was 1,220 pCi/kg whereas bananas have 3,520 pCi/kg and brazil nuts have up to 12,600 pCi/kg. Third, it went away in a few weeks.

It's not enough to know what's going on in the event you're looking at; you also have to know what else is going on.

Speaking of low-information paranoid activists …

The news that the violators of a social contract in restraint of trade will now have the opportunity to pay Social-Security taxes is being misinterpreted by the Other Ignorant Army as implying that the aforesaid competitors will get Social-Security benefits immediately, even despite the fact that there is a ten-year delay (the deferred action on immigration might get past the courts but attempts to get around Social-Security law certainly won't) and even despite the fact that immigrants tend to be young.

By the way, some nativists claim the immigrants are coming over to go on welfare and some claim they're taking our highly-skilled jobs. There should be a debate between the two sides but somehow I doubt if there will be one.

Explaining the Ferguson Riots

There's only one explanation of why the reaction to a slightly-dubious grand-jury decision was to loot stores and burn down neighborhoods:

This story is emblematic of something I've noticed seems increasingly common in the 21st century---political movements that appear exceedingly stupid.

On the other hand, it appears that this was stupidity imported from outside Ferguson.

Come to think of it, this might explain why the prosecutors waited until nightfall to announce the decision instead of announcing it in narrow daylight. (In November, daylight isn't broad.)

Two Bulshytt Claims

• That “white people” will never riot. Wrong.
• That law enforcement would never shoot a “white” person for no good reason. Wrong.

Time to Buy Google?

If it was time to sell Google a few years ago, was it time to buy Google more recently?

On the other hand, I noticed they were much quieter about this than the initial announcement. (I only heard of it quite recently.) Maybe they're embarrassed at being sensible.

An IQ Speculation

What if looking down on others raises IQ? That might explain the odd swings in measured IQs for different groups.

If we could just get everybody to look down at everybody else, then that would raise everybody's IQ! Except then we would be smart enough to realize how silly that method is and then become dim again.

Maybe that's why the Flynn effect might have leveled off…

Dance, Puppets, Dance …

It should be obvious to the meanest intelligence that the purpose of the proposed amnesty is to ensure that people in the Republican base say things that can be spun as racist. Dance, puppets, dance …

Meanwhile, one possible way to defuse this (besides charging admission) is to give the “green light” to immigration from areas with people who are particularly supportive of capitalism. The top three are Vietnam, Bangladesh, and South Korea. Promoting immigration from Vietnam will also help make Democrats look like idiots.

How to Avoid Being Too Partisan

1. Pick a couple of issues you feel strongly about, one on each side. When you're too close to being a partisan, remind yourself “There are the people who are wrong about X.” Picking two issues will prevent you from being partisan on the other side, in case you switch. It might even be helpful to pick four issues, two where each side is wrong about the facts and two where it's wrong about the morals.
2. Make sure you read something on the Other Side regularly, preferably from people you have something in common with.

Immigration Amnesty and the Contraception Mandate

The contraception mandate may have been inserted into the "Affordable" Care Act in order to provoke opposition. The game plan was quite simple:

1. Tell low-information voters that Republicans hate s*x.
2. Add a preposterous mandate for something used while doing you-know-what.
3. Wait for Republicans to oppose it.
4. Claim that opposition is evidence for Step 1.
5. Get re-elected.

Alternative possibility:

1. Tell low-information voters that Republicans hate s*x.
2. Add a preposterous mandate for something used while doing you-know-what.
3. Wait for Republicans to go along with it.
4. Let the Republican base get disgusted enough to stay home.
5. Get re-elected.

Both of these were avoided when Republicans backed over-the-counter birth control. It was in accordance with current Republican principles and disproved the initial claim.

The immigration amnesty might be an attempt at the same strategy:

1. Tell low-information voters that Republicans are racists.
2. Issue an executive decree of dubious constitutionality.
3. Wait for Republicans to oppose it.
4. Claim that opposition is evidence for Step 1.
5. Get re-elected.

Alternative possibility:

1. Tell low-information voters that Republicans are racists.
2. Issue an executive decree of dubious constitutionality.
3. Wait for Republicans to go along with it.
4. Let the Republican base get disgusted enough to stay home.
5. Get re-elected.

The Republicans will have to come up with a plan that is in accordance with current Republican principles and disproves the initial claim. One suggestion: Charge admission to the US. Hand over $1000 (is that a reasonable amount?) and you're on the way to citizenship.

A Few Thoughts on Net Neutrality

At first, I thought the net-neutrality controversy was about the standard left-wing line that we can bring the millennium by passing the right regulations. That turned out not to be what it was about. They're saying it's a matter of stopping a horrible situation.

My second thought was they were talking about real problems. Leftists sometime identify real problems (e.g., stagflation in the 1970s) and propose absurd solutions. I thought that was the matter here. That turned out not to be what it was about either. They're saying they want to keep the current system.

As far as I can tell, they're assuming that all good things come from regulations and if the present unregulated system is good it must be due to the regulations yet to be passed. The future regulations will be so beneficial that their good effects extended back in time.

I must admit they have a dangling shred of evidence for potential exploitation: the Comcast vs. Netflix controversy. OTOH, it would be more believable if the same people hadn't been recommending the same policy for years. OTGH, it sure looks like Netflix was a much bigger violator of the Internet spirit (one content provider hogging 30% of the bandwidth?).

Query: If net-neutrality regulations are passed, how long will it take for them to be repealed?

Hmmm…

GMO potatoes might prevent cancer. This is almost as good as the news that beets have more anti-oxidants after being microwaved.

Evidence for the KOK Hypothesis

There appears to be more infrared light in the universe than can be accounted for by current theories:

Prof Jamie Bock from Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, one of the report's authors, described the extragalactic background light (EBL) as "kind of a cosmic glow".

"It's very faint - but basically the spaces between the stars and galaxies aren't dark. And this is the total light made by stars and galaxies during cosmic history," Prof Bock told the BBC.

Earlier measurements from rockets and satellites had shown that there was more fluctuation in this background than the sum total of known galaxies could explain.

At least two proposals were made to account for the extra light: it might come from very early, distant galaxies that formed when the universe was much younger, or it might come from stray stars outside galactic boundaries.

There's also the possibility the light might come from civilizations in apparently-empty parts of the universe.

Bug Facts

A gamergate is a type of ant

It's a reproductively viable female worker ant.

Gamergate ants have an odd habit

Even feminists don't do this:

Or consider the gamergate ants, whose females capture a male and snip off his genitals during copulation. They discard the male's body, but his severed genitals continue to fertilize for an hour.

Eeeewwww!!!!

Parents of infants might prefer this

In some species of hymenoptera, the larvae have a lack of a habit:

[The larvae] are also unable to defecate until they reach adulthood due to having an incomplete digestive tract, presumably to avoid contaminating their environment.

Spiders can apparently build webs in six dimensions

According to a British newspaper:

Experts estimated there were around 35,176 spiders per cubic square metre of space.

Whatever Happened to …

… the “big data” that was supposed to ensure Democratic dominance? Did “gamergate” alienate the programming community? Did the programmers spend the last few months sabotaging the effort? Did they try to arrange for the get-out-the-vote people to call conservatives? That would explain many of the phone calls I received …

Sigh

The Mickey Kaus explanation of the recent election reminds me of how the Village Voice covered a conservative victory in a Swedish election. I had thought it was a rejection of absurdly-high taxes but the Village Voice attributed it to the Socialist support for nuclear energy.

The lesson of the comments at the Instapundit thread on the above is that statists never accept that Big Government has been rejected. Any attempt to reject Big Government is interpreted to mean a rejection of the isolated attempts at limiting government by the losing side.

As for whether this election means Republicans must turn nativist: In 2008, the Republicans nominated a pro-immigration candidate. The resulting loss was attributed to that. In 2012, the Republicans nominated someone more neutral. It didn't work.

Not THAT Nuts!

Okay. Libertarians are supposed to be eccentric but the Libertarian Party candidate for State Senate in my district is just plain nuts.

Does this mean I have to vote for that hack Marcellino?

I'm Considering a Boycott

I'm considering a boycott of Lightlife and Smart Balance for bowing to modern superstitions about GMOs. There are other candidates that I'm looking at.

It's possible to make a case that GMOs “aren't necessary.” If a business rejects GMOs on that ground, it's as though they had a mouse infestation problem and controlled it by acquiring brown cats, yellow cats, and gray cats. (Black cats aren't necessary.) Black cats might not be necessary to control mice, but if they're excluded, one might wonder what other superstitions are being taken seriously.

Besides, such a rejection implies they're selling to idiots.

What If Math Is Politicized?

After reading about the politicization of absolutely everything, I've wondered what might happen if mathematics is politicized. Is the Axiom of Choice libertarian? Is the Axiom of Determinacy part of the regulatory state? Is the Power Set Axiom fascist? (It's a collectivist axiom that treats the individual points on a line as part of an amorphous blob that is given without regard to the points that make it up.)

On the other hand…

Meanwhile, it looks like Ezra Klein ended the essay with an attempt to inspire fear on the Right. Please recall the Left tried to get Phil Robertson fired. They failed. They had earlier tried to get Rugh Limbaugh fired. They failed.

Addendum: Since the context of “amorphous blob” was not present in the Google search, I'll include it below:

… set theory with \(\mathsf{V}=\mathsf{L}\) does not take the continuum as an amorphous blob whose existence is provided by the power set axiom. … What is emphasized here is that the abstract power set axiom is the basis of Zermelo set theory, while the notion of transfinite ordinal number is the basis of constructible set theory. … It is in questions concerning the axiom of choice that these two approaches begin to differ. If one is to put his faith in an amorphous blob, why should it be well-ordered. Alternatively, if the real line is something which arises from faith in transfinite iteration, there had better be a definable well-ordering.

Points just want to be free!

Wilson–Patterson Inventory?

One of the recent studies purporting to show a difference between liberal and conservative brains judged political opinions in accordance with the Wilson–Patterson inventory, in which the experimental subjects are asked if they agree with the liberal or conservative view on items in a list. In my humble opinion, many of the item in the Wilson–Patterson inventory are ambiguous. For example:

• School prayer
  Do they mean “Are you in favor of prayer in public schools?” or “Are you in favor of prayer in more schools?”
• Pornography
  Do they mean “Are you in favor of state suppression of pornography?” or “Are you in favor of private citizens criticizing it?”
• Women's equality
  Do they mean “Are you in favor of allowing women to work?” (at one time leftists didn't) or “Are you in favor of forcing businesses to pay wages based on someone's fantasy of discrimination?”
• abortion rights
  Do they mean “Are you in favor of the right to an abortion?” or “Are you in favor of the right not to be aborted?”
• warrantless searches
  This isn't right-wing vs. left-wing; this is in-power vs. out-of-power.
• globalization
  Is the Left for or against globalization this week?
• school standards
  Lately, it's been the right-wing who are opposed to Common Core.
• free trade
  Is the Left for or against free trade this week?
• obedience
  My stereotype detector just buzzed.
• compromise
  Give me three quarters of the cake?

The “obedience” item is particularly annoying. If this was invented by leftists (and social scientists tend to lean left), they probably thought “Of course, the wingnuts believe in obedience!” On the other hand, the inventory also includes “Tax cuts” and “small government.” So, we wingnuts believe in tax cuts, small government, and … obedience? Obedience to whom?

Pro-Government Yet Disengaged?

On the one hand, President Obama is clearly on the side of more government. On the other hand, he seems to be disengaged from the actual process of government. I had some trouble trying to figure that out until I realized that he's acting as the laissez-faire leader of that colonialist power known as the Federal bureaucracy that has somehow taken over the United States. He doesn't believe in letting citizens do what they want; he believes in letting bureaucrats do what they want.

Question: What if a future President trying to rein in bureaucrats tries a mass firing similar to Reagan vs. PATCO and the bureaucrats refuse to leave? What if they send SWAT teams after their replacements?

What the Other Side Was Saying about Ebola Not That Long Ago

From CompuServe forums in the 1990s:

>>Uncontrolled population growth increases rates of sickness. If 400 Billion people ever were to live on this tiny planet, they wouldn't live for very long before Ebola or something else would kill everyone. <<

or

>>There are some ideas floating around out there that AIDS, Ebola, and related horrors may be produced by the rain forest ecology in response to stresses. Sort of a self-defense mechanism against the likes of us encroaching on them.<<

or

>>WM: Not "spewing venomous endictments," just making accurate observations. If these guys accurately represent the Libertarian "political philosophy" on environmental issues, then mother nature may be just in time in kicking her immune system into high gear by unveiling the Ebola and other super-viruses to protect herself from the HUMAN infestation.<<

From 1996 Usenet:

> Ever heard of Ebola?? There are plenty more where that came from, all we have
> to do is build more roads through rainforests to let feral animals get the
> nasties there and then take them out and infect the rest of us.
> This is not a fairy tale folks! It has been documented and proved

From 2003 Usenet:

> Increase the killing or we risk becoming extremely overpopulated. I'd
> spray un- infected areas with ebola and aids. The world cannot
> support this population. It's madness! We need to save lives in
> Africa. We need to help the homeless. The answer to homelessness is
> to give the death penalty to anyone caught eating out of a dumpster.
> Lethal injection is humane. It's not an issue.

In other words, a decade or two ago, Malthusians and environmentalists used Ebola as an excuse to impose the policies they wanted anyway. For some reason, nowadays this is done by nativists.

Debate Wanted

Does alcohol raise IQ or lower IQ?

I Have Trouble Taking Ebola Hysteria Seriously

Back in the 1990s, most of the hysteria (or maybe it was gloating) about Ebola came from environmentalist wackos. A claim was that such outbreaks were due to human beings moving into “new lands.” I'm not sure where the people saying that thought human beings evolved in the first place. Another common claim is that the Ebola outbreak was due to high population densities, even despite the fact in the real world, Ebola originated in a rainforest on a thinly-populated continent.

In short, the Ebola hysteria sounds too much like people trying to come up with reasons to believe the Earth goddess is fighting back against that crime against nature known as civilization.

The people hysterical about Ebola in the 1990s had a few things in common with the people hysterical about Ebola today. There's opposition to Julian Simon's theories, a self-congratulatory belief that they are paying some attention to basic science (unlike the Other Side), and bizarre, not completely debugged, religious rhetoric.

Something Else to Worry About

No, it's not Ebola, ISIS, or that the three branches of the Federal government are Moe, Larry, and Curly this time. Spiders are starting to learn how to use tools. When we also recall that spiders have some of the highest ratios of brain size to body size of any creature …

What does this imply about Spiderman?

Addendum: Another spider nightmare.

The Caplan Criterion

Bryan Caplan recently tweeted:

.@MarkSKrikorian Good rule of thumb: If you think it's wrong to punish natives for X, I I think it's wrong to punish humans for X.

The converse might be worth applying. If it is legitimate to temporarily close off houses in response to an epidemic, it is legitimate to temporarily close off borders in response to an epidemic.

It might make sense to put a time limit on any border closings. The traditional time limit was forty days (the origin of the term “quarantine”).

The Boy Who Cried “Wolf!” and Nativists

The nativist claim that Ebola proves we MUST close our borders would be more believable if they hadn't been making the same claim for years. The nativists who cry “foreigners!” sound a lot like the boy who cried “wolf!”

On the other hand, they might have a point for once. Control of contagious disease was a traditional activity of classical liberal governments. I have seen complaints that such governments were more concerned about contagious disease than malnutrition.

On the gripping hand, there is the common problem of activity creep. Once it is considered proper for governments to intervene in epidemics, they have an incentive to consider more events to be epidemics.

Two Consequences of Malthusian Theories

According to Malthusian theories, elementary science implies that unrestricted reproduction is irresponsible. In other words, the widespread dissemination of Malthusian theories will suppress the number of people raised to believe in both what is called elementary science and responsible behavior. That, in turn, has two effects: 1) People who believe in what is called elementary science will tend to be more irresponsible. 2) People who are trying to be responsible will be skeptical of science.

This might be an explanation for both environmentalist wackos and creationists.

For the record, I hold that overpopulation overshoot is a common problem in animals but we're plants.

Obama Really Is a Marxist

Good heavens. President Obama really is a Marxist. Just overthrow capitalism and the Millennium will arrive even without establishing a dictatorship. The Obama administration is what happens when a Marxist refuses to be a dictator. In other words, things could be worse.

In other unexpected news, President Obama turned not to be an affirmative-action beneficiary.

A Controlled Experiment

The U.S. invaded Iraq and … it's a mess.

The U.S. did not invade Syria and … it's a worse mess.

Yes. I know it's a small sample … but a sample size of two is better than a sample size of one.

Non-Human Elveshams

In “The Story of the Late Mr. Elvesham” by H. G. Wells, Egbert Elvesham carried out a Grand Theft Me in which he swapped bodies with a much younger man. I've wondered about the possibility of transplanting a mind from a human body into an animal brain, preferably a large animal brain such as that of a cetacean or an elephant. That might be an interesting topic for an SF story. I don't recall if it has ever been done although the opposite took place in Beyond Humanity by Justin Lieber.

A Note on the “Em” Revolution

For the past few years, Robin Hanson has been speculating on the effects of an ems, human emulating robots. One obvious possibility is that robots (who can work cheaply) will drive wages down to near zero. That might not be a problem if prices are also near zero. On the other hand, not all the components of prices come from wages; some come from land or capital. In other words, if you own a home or other large good, you had better hang on to it. Someday you might have to make ends meet renting it to the ems.

Another way to look at this is that people who are prepared need not worry.

Read These Together

The following (seen via Arnold Kling) sounded quite alarming:

In 1998, about 28 percent of American men 80 and older had a functional limitation; by 2006, that figure was nearly 42 percent.

The above would have sounded even more alarming if I hadn't read the following first:

In 1976, 8.3% of students in U.S. public schools were officially disabled.  By 2010, the disabled share was up to 13%.

Maybe we're counting disability differently nowadays among both young and old. I'd like to know if the percentage of disabled pets is increasing.

A Note to Pajamas Media

I have no objection to sponsored email but the ads should not shout “THIS IS BULSHYTT!” They should not start off:

This Hushed-Up Cure for Heart Disease, Diabetes, Alzheimer's and Cancer Has Been Censored, Banned, and Blacklisted... Until Now!

In case you were wondering the ad purports to be about telomerase, a substance so secret that it's been covered at PJ Media. Besides, the use of “natural” products by researchers is not top secret.

Argument from Authority?

The following style of argument is sometimes found and is very annoying:

The scientists in this field say X.

Wait a moment… Here's a scientist in this field who says Y.

“I think that’s called argument by authority.”

Apparently, someone saying “Science proves my side right” isn’t using an argument from authority until he/she cites a specific scientist. This is the opposite of [CITATION NEEDED]. They might even explain why some people cite a “landmark study”, but can't be bothered to give you a reference.

A Suggestion on How to Handle ISIS

Maybe we can ask China for help.

Unlike many potential allies, China is interested in keeping oil prices down.

Leaker Wanted

If the Democratic 2012 victory was made possible by a unified central database, it should be possible for a leaker to grab a large part of it. There must be a scandal in there somewhere.

Paging James O'Keefe …

Both Sides Can Cite This

According to The Wall Street Journal's review of The Half Has Never Been Told by Edward E. Baptist:

For example, the Consolidated Association of the Planters of Louisiana—a local bank chartered in 1827—enjoyed a lucrative relationship with Baring Brothers of London, a firm that lobbied successfully to persuade the Louisiana legislature to back the association's bonds with public credit. Thus if the association failed to pay off its bonds, Louisiana's taxpayers would be liable for the debt. Baring would eventually handle some $2.5 million in bond sales for the association, marketing to clients in Britain as well as the European continent.

Both sides in the debate on whether slavery is capitalist or not can cite the above.

• Liberals: See? I told you so. Governments bail out businesses just like capitalism.
• Conservatives: See? I told you so. Governments bail out businesses just like liberalism.

These are all reasons to believe if you already believe…

Amazing News about Philosophy

Philosophy turns out to be useful for something after all.

Now all philosophers need is rigor and sense ….

It's Programmer's Day

The 0x100th day of the year.

Meta-Analysis Needed

It looks like the most problematic social science papers in recent years have been on the topic of priming effects (example here and sarcasm there and my earlier comments yonder). This research is commonly cited by people claiming free will doesn't exist.

There's another problem field in social science: neuropsychology. It is noted for small sample sizes and being used as an excuse to disbelieve free will.

We need a meta-analysis. Is there a correlation between whether the media reports of a social-science study emphasize its supposed challenge to free will and the shoddiness of the study? Shoddiness might be measured by either the smallness of the samples or the lack of replication.

One Way to Identify a Racist

Someone who wants to “reinforce the border” is not necessarily a racist. He/she might be excessively paranoid about rest of the world and excessively trusting of the US government (please note that a border fence, for example, can be used to keep people in and that the border controls are likely to be run by possemaniacs or sadists) but that might not be racism. It's racism when someone only wants to fortify the southern border and ignores the northern border.

A Few Thoughts on Possible Scottish Independence

Who will have control over North Sea oil and gas? Could Scotland be tempted to go down the Venezuela route?

Will Scotland retain the British monarchy? Or will they insist on the heir of Bonnie Prince Charlie? Who is that, anyway?

Will this inspire similar movements in the rest of the British Isles? Will the Heptarchy return? Will East Anglia rise again? Will the same people cheering this also cheer Ulster independence? What about independence for Connacht, Leinster, and Munster?

An Old Complaint about Reagan

Back in the 1980s, one common complaint about Reagan (typical example here) was that he was less than enthusiastic about enforcing laws that he wanted Congress to repeal. We see an echo of that today in conservative complaints about Obama's lack of enthusiasm for enforcing immigration laws.

How to Be Beheaded

If you're about to be beheaded, please don't be meek about it; that's unlikely to save you. Margaret Pole can be a role model:

She was dragged to the block and, as she refused to lay her head on it, was forced down. As she struggled, the inexperienced executioner's first blow made a gash in her shoulder rather than her neck. Ten additional blows were required to complete the execution. A probably apocryphal account states that she leapt from the block after the first clumsy blow and ran, pursued by the executioner, being struck several times before she died.

Alternative possibility: Have a bomb in your belly (ObSF: “If This Goes On…” by Robert Heinlein) set to go off if you're decapitated and your heart stops.

Radical Immigrants to Minnesota Raise Their Children to Overthrow the US

It's time to deport the Finns.

On the other hand, many of them went to their idea of a Promised Land.

Douglas Adams, Enormous Integers, and Infinity

John Baez's discussion of enormous integers and infinity:

Here’s a puzzle due to the logician Harvey Friedman. It too has an unexpected answer.

Say you have a finite alphabet to write with. How long can a word be if no block of letters in this word, from the nth letter to the 2nth, is allowed to appear as a subsequence of a bigger block from the mth letter to the 2mth?

If you have just one letter, this is the longest it can be:

AAA

If you have two, this is the longest it can be:

ABBBAAAAAAA

Puzzle: How long can the word be if you have three letters in your alphabet?

Friedman showed there’s still a finite upper bound on how long it can be. But, he showed it’s incomprehensibly huge!

Now Friedman is one of the world’s experts on large cardinals—large infinite numbers. So when he says a finite number is incomprehensibly huge, you sit up and listen. It’s like seeing a seasoned tiger hunter running through the jungle with his shotgun, yelling “Help! It’s a giant ant!”

reminded me of the following Douglas Adams quote:

The car shot forward into the circle of light, and suddenly Arthur had a fairly clear idea of what infinity looked like.

It wasn't infinity in fact. Infinity itself looks flat and uninteresting. Looking up into the night sky is looking into infinity—distance is incomprehensible and therefore meaningless. The chamber into which the aircar emerged was anything but infinite, but it was just very very big, so big that it gave the impression of infinity far better than infinity itself.

I'm reminded of the saying “This is not mathematics. This is theology.” (about the more abstract parts of mathematics).

“Can” vs. “May”: The Difference is Important

Leftists are opposed to Uber, etc. because of the following simple syllogism:

1. Under laissez-faire capitalism, businesses can do anything they want.
2. Businesses want to suppress competition.
3. Laissez-faire capitalism will thus lead to monopoly.

They went wrong at just one word: They think laissez faire means “businesses can do anything they want” instead of “businesses may do anything they want.” I suspect some of them simply do not know there is a difference.

On the other hand, according to stereotype, English majors are more likely to be leftists. Shouldn't they, of all people, know the difference?

A Few Questions about Integrative Complexity

According to social scientists (slight pause for laughter) investigating “Integrative Complexity,” lack of Integrative Complexity can cause violent conflict. I have a few questions:

1. Has this been checked by people who were not already fans of Integrative Complexity?
2. Has anybody predicted a future conflict by this technique? Or has it only been used to “predict” the past?
3. Is my earlier post on Integrative Complexity correct?
4. Does the Moral Foundations theory mean conservatives have more Integrative Complexity than liberals? Or do liberals hold a copyright on Integrative Complexity?
5. Do the supposed contradictions of the Bible (e.g, between Proverbs 26:4 and 26:5) actually mean it is Integratively Complex?

Are Immigrants Government Agents?

I recently realized that conservatives seem to be more accepting of a relaxed policy on immigration when there's a Republican President. In my humble opinion, this makes absolutely no sense. Wouldn't it make more sense to support government activity when one of yours in charge of the government? The only way this even comes close to making sense is if you either assume that immigrants are government agents or if you assume that immigration is a matter of people being forced into the US at gunpoint. (The latter was public policy prior to 1808, so it's only 99% absurd instead of 100% absurd.) Can anybody else explain this?

An Odd Thought about ISIS and Hamas

They don't have a well-known charismatic leader on top. I suppose the deaths of Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden, and Muammar Gaddafi had an effect. The people in charge are keeping a low profile.

Does Kennewick Man Disrupt the “Narrative”?

Contrary to many of Instapundit's commenters, I doubt if Kennewick Man will disrupt the “Narrative.” Even if the ancestors of Native Americans pushed Kennewick Man's relatives “into the sea,” the Enlightened Ones will still think the Native Americans are the proper owners of America. If you get to a place by land, you are thought to have a right to stay there and possibly even take it over. If you get to a place by water, you don't. (I've mentioned this before.)

For example, Mexicans get to the United States by land so they must be defended; Cuban refugees get to the United States by water so they must get sent back. Israelis of European descent, Protestant Ulstermen, or white Rhodesians got to Israel, Ulster, or Rhodesia by water so they're regarded as illegitimate. Arabs invaded Palestine/Israel by land so that it is regarded as legitimate. Most Europeans colonial empires were established by naval conquest and are regarded as illegitimate but Russia's colonial empire in Siberia was established by land is thus legitimate. (Trying to identify who came up with this distinction will be left as an exercise for the reader.)

In the present controversy, the ancestors of Native Americans arrived by walking across Beringia, which means they have a right to be here whether or not they were first. Kennewick Man's relatives arrived by water so they don't. It's as simple as that.

Addendum: Atlantean/Hyperborean?

I Told You So

A few years ago, I said:

If a powerful nation gets a reputation of supporting any dictator who might be likely to be overthrown by a totalitarian movement (for the purposes of this discussion it doesn't matter if said movement is communist, religious, or racist), then dictators have an incentive to prop up such movements.

This weekend we see:

Earlier in the three-year-old Syrian uprising, Mr. Assad decided to mostly avoid fighting the Islamic State to enable it to cannibalize the more secular rebel group supported by the West, the Free Syrian Army, said Izzat Shahbandar, an Assad ally and former Iraqi lawmaker who was Baghdad's liaison to Damascus. The goal, he said, was to force the world to choose between the regime and extremists.

The Killing Machine and the News

In the last few days, there have been two news items that reminded me of The Killing Machine by Jack Vance.

First, there was the Foley kidnapping and attempted ransom extortion. If Jack Vance were writing that story, the ransom would have been paid in counterfeit money printed in disappearing ink.

Second, the news that Alzheimer's patients can be treated by transfusions of young blood. If Jack Vance were writing that story, the only person to know about the treatment would be one of the five Demon Princes and his henchmen …

An Odd Correlation

Is it my imagination or is there a correlation between anti-Zionism and opposition to GMOs? I tried checking this using the GSS (the relevant variables are EATGMO and ISRAEL) but they didn't have enough data.

We've Done This Before

I just realized that a transhumanist Malthusian (discussed here) is an example of someone with an ideology that disagrees with conservatism trying to infiltrate another ideology that disagrees with conservatism even despite the fact that the first ideology (Malthusianism) is even further from the second ideology (transhumanism) than conservatism is.

In other words, it's a repeat of liberal (in the classical sense) socialism.

Three Years Ago …

… we were debating the propriety of police wielding pepper spray.

I think I prefer that to tanks and machine guns.

Possible Reactions to a Transhumanist Malthusian

Possible reactions to a transhumanist Malthusian:

• Incredulous stare.
• You cannot use the Ring!
• Wouldn't potential transhumans be able to solve a trivial little problem like providing enough food?
• Transhumanist Malthusian? Is that anything like a square circle?
• This is the sort of thing that gives transhumanists a bad name.
• I have suggested that transhumanists and bioconservatives bury the hatchet … in their common enemy, the Malthusians. Transhumanist Malthusians might interfere with that.
• A transhumanist Malthusian is a technical optimist until he/she/whatever realizes that means agreeing with some conservatives.

Absurd Logo Design

The person responsible for “I♥NY” has designed a logo for global warming. I already thought the “I♥NY” symbol was inane. This one's worse.

Apparently, he trusts mainstream science when it comes to whether there has been global warming but not when mainstream science says the damage (if any) is probably minor. It's another case of “All hail the experts! … as long as they agree with us.”

It's Starting …

The plans that the Democratic base had a few years ago are finally being put into practice. It took longer than expected.

The Trouble with Looking up a Phrase and Thinking You Now Know What It Means

According to The Wall Street Journal:

UP AND OVER: People gather in a park in Madrid as a perigee moon, or supermoon, rises Sunday. The phenomenon occurs when the moon is near the horizon, making it appear larger and brighter than usual.

Sigh. No.

More Random Thoughts on SWAT Teams and Camouflage Uniforms

Unlike many of my fellow wingnuts, I think there just might be a place for heavy weaponry in riot control. Unlike the statists, I also think that heavy weaponry should be available for private citizens. A pistol might be useful in dealing with a an individual criminal but if you're suspected of being a mad scientist and the villagers are storming your castle, you might want a few cannon. Cannon are likely to be far more useful in repelling a riot than in starting a riot.

In other news for libertarians, a Congressbeing has introduced a law to ban body armor. As I've mentioned before, a common statist response to “Your government program is interfering with X” is to try to create a government program to do X. This proposed bill is the statist response to “gun control keeps criminals from being shot.” If criminals being shot is so good, they reason, we must pass a law to ensure they can be shot. Maybe the SWAT teams are simply the results of the statist interpretation of “more guns, less crime.”

I'm also starting to have second thoughts on the advisability of camouflage uniforms even for soldiers. Civilian clothing is forbidden to soldiers in combat in order to keep civilians from being targets. The custom of wearing camouflage uniforms ensures that trees become targets.

A Question about SWAT Teams

Why do they wear camouflage uniforms?

Are they trying to fit in in with the inner-city? Maybe we should tell them that “It's a jungle out there” is a metaphor. A real camouflage uniform for the inner city would look like graffiti, peeling paint, and reinforced concrete leaking rust.

A Quote from The Yeoman of the Guard

The recent news about Robin Williams reminded me of the following quote from the Gilbert and Sullivan opera The Yeoman of the Guard:

Cause? Have we not all cause? Is not the world a big butt of humour, into which all who will may drive a gimlet? See, I am a salaried wit; and is there aught in nature more ridiculous? A poor, dull, heart-broken man, who must needs be merry, or he will be whipped; who must rejoice, lest he starve; who must jest you, jibe you, quip you, crank you, wrack you, riddle you, from hour to hour, from day to day, from year to year, lest he dwindle, perish, starve, pine, and die! Why, when there's naught else to laugh at, I laugh at myself till I ache for it!

A Suggestion for Nativists

If the EPA can devise a figure for the social cost of carbon (with my comments here, there, and yonder), then I'm sure nativists can devise a figure for the social cost of immigration. It might be as underwhelming as the social cost of carbon.

The closest approximations I've seen appear to be similar to “cap and trade” instead of calculating a dollar amount of damage.

They're Ba-ack!

The squeegee men are back! There is an obvious solution: Make it legal to run them over. Another possible solution: razor-sharp windshield wipers.

I suspect they were inspired by the government.

Question about “Inconstant Moon” by Larry Niven

The characters realized there had been a massive solar flare when the moon became spectacularly brighter. If the sun became hotter in “Inconstant Moon,” its light (and thus moonlight) would be bluer.

Why didn't anyone in the story recall the phrase “once in a blue moon”? They might have realized this had happened before.

On the other hand, there are other reasons for a blue moon.

Avoiding Embarrassment, Part II

As I've said before, many leftists are embarrassed by living in a nation where schools have to be partly funded by bake sales. They found a solution: They're banning bake sales, this time at a federal level.

By the way, how is this supposed to be enforced? If this law is enforced by withholding subsidies, the Enlightened Ones (at least while reacting to the Halbig decision) are now on record as saying they can't do that.

I tried reading the regulations in question and I can't figure out how it was supposed to be enforced against a state government unwilling to go along. As far as I can tell, it's a matter of “If a State government does not fulfill our requirements, we will require them again.” There's a strong possibility the people in the current administration simply don't know how to deal with people who disagree with them.

This may be connected with the leftist refusal to admit that government is a matter of force. In LeftWorld, governments issue commands and everybody obeys. (This also explains the current foreign policy or lack thereof.)

A Suggestion for Israel

According to solar-energy enthusiasts, we can power the world by paving a small amount of desert. We can start by paving the area within a few miles of the Gaza Strip. The border of the Gaza Strip is 30 miles long, so the area within six miles would be 180 square miles of solar panels.

I think that would be enough to power Iran.

Why the Decline?

Differences between male and female preferences might explain a low percentage of female computer-science majors. It does not explain a decline. The current percentage of female computer-science majors is about half the percentage it was back when Reagan was president.

My theory, for whatever it's worth, is that women who are able to think logically are avoiding college so they don't have to associate with feminists.

More Stuff Political Activists Say

Anybody who disagrees with us but can cite an actual fact is smart but unwise (seen here and there).

An Important Quote for My Fellow Weirdos

The following applies to libertarians, socialists, monarchists, etc.:

“Meanwhile, as a delightful by-product, the few (fewer every day) who will not be made Normal or Regular and Like Folks and Integrated increasingly become in reality the prigs and cranks which the rabble would in any case have believed them to be.”—C. S. Lewis in Screwtape Proposes a Toast

A Note on the Cloward–Piven Strategy

Maybe the activists on the Other Side act like they don't know what capitalism is because they aren't aiming at capitalism.

The “Cloward–Piven” strategy was not aimed at infidel libertarians or conservatives. It was aimed at moderate liberal heretics. It was devised in the aftermath of the 1964 election by people who thought the right had been permanently discredited and could be ignored. For example, in the same era we see a liberal looking at radicals and a radical looking at liberals.

In addition to the failed attempts at crashing capitalism I mentioned earlier, there was also the attempt to crash “red” state governments by only providing subsidies to state governments willing to set up state exchanges. This backfired so badly that the mendacitors are now insisting they didn't mean it. It discredited liberals but not libertarians. We also see the alleged border crisis, which might crash the alliance between state governments and unions that holds “blue” states hostage. Again, it looks like it will discredit liberals but not libertarians.

Bluff and Fold

2012 leftists: “We've got you by the [deleted]. You must set up state exchanges or else.”

We wingnuts: “Sorry, but we're not going to follow your script.”

2014 leftists: “We were just kidding! You took us seriously?”

In other words, the current administration is applying the same tactics in domestic policy as in foreign policy.

If Smart Money Buys Brand X …

If smart money buys Brand X, there are two potential conclusions:

• If this is a challenge to capitalist economics, we must save people from themselves by forbidding them from shopping at Whole Foods.
• Only people shopping at Walmart should be allowed to vote.

I also noticed some absurd reactions in the comments to the article. For example:

This story goes against all of the Friedmanite and Austrian economic ideology which presumes that consumers will always make the most informed choices and markets operate with perfect information.

No. We merely assume that consumers are better informed than politicians.

Another absurd comment:

So "national branding", it turns out, is, more or less, another scam essentially, to fleece those who are least able to discern value. The only (cheap) solace here is that many of them must be Tea Partiers, but alas, more of them struggling working poor.

According to stereotype, Tea Partiers are more likely to shop at Walmart whereas liberals are more likely to shop at Whole Foods. As I have said before, it's the left-wing businesses that are spherical trusts.

Limits to Immigration?

According to Ben Horowitz:

An excellent constraining principle when planning your budget is the preservation of cultural cohesion. The enemy of cultural cohesion is super-fast headcount growth. Companies that grow faster than doubling their headcount annually tend to have serious cultural drift, even if they do a great job of onboarding new employees and training them.

If we apply this to immigration, we can see we must set a quota of no more than 300 million immigrants this year … and 600 million next year ….

“I Sent You a Rowboat”

Let's see… The US government is going bankrupt due to a lack of children. A horde of children arrive on our doorstep and we're supposed to expel them?

It looks like God sent us a rowboat but we're refusing to get in.

Stuff Political Activists Say

You can find examples of the following bulshytt on both sides of nearly any political debate:

• Our side isn't ruthless enough but their side plays hardball.
• We can't trust the government and therefore need more of it.
• All hail the experts! What? They disagree with us? Then … QUESTION AUTHORITY!
• If you want to defend someone's rights you must be prepared to take care of them for life.
• The social or economic groups currently associated with their side are parasitic on the social or economic groups currently associated with our side.
• The other side is deliberately pursuing unhealthy policies in order to kill off the surplus population.
• Yes, we have a crackpot or two on our side but we have them under control. Their crackpots are running the show.
• The other side is full of ignorant morons who refuse to find out anything about contrary opinions. We are thereby relieved of any responsibility to find out anything about the other side's opinions.

Sigh.

Why Judges Sometimes Make Sense

Most government people get their names in headlines by doing things. Judges get their names in headlines by stopping the government from doing things. This gives egomaniac judges (and the top people in any field will be egomaniacs) an incentive to restrain government. You can think of the judicial branch as BuSab.

Jonah Goldberg Asks a Nasty Question

Jonah Goldberg asks a nasty question:

What would the debate look like if the trends went in the opposite direction? What if most of these immigrants (legal and illegal) were likely to be Republicans in the near and middle term? Would the libertarian arguments for treating labor like any other economic good gain more traction on the right? I think so. Would liberals suddenly realize that they are undermining the economic standing of many African-American and working class Democrats? Almost surely.

If an emergency evacuation of Israel becomes necessary, the current administration will suddenly make an about face on immigration law enforcement. (It's already starting.) It will be the Elian Gonzalez case on a large scale.

I've noticed it's us libertarians who call for repealing immigration laws. Liberals want them on the books but unenforced right now. I think they're holding them in reserve in case potential conservatives want to immigrate.

The Mexican Border and Future Thrillers

Since Modesty Blaise was based on an 8-year-old refugee traveling by herself, will the children at the Mexican border star in thrillers written in 2034?

Reining in Bureaucrats

Controlling the Obama appointees (behavior described in The Wall Street Journal) in the Rubbio/Christie/Ryan/Paul presidency may be a problem. We had better start the “battlespace preparation” now. We will need our version of WikiLeaks (we can use the results of the mainstream WikiLeaks but we might need more). We will have explain that letting the public know what unelected bureaucrats are doing is not “snitching.” We will also have to think of other cliches the Other Side might come up with.

One thing we must beware of is encouraging our politicians to be verbose. The more they say, the more chances they will have to say something absurd.

Of Course There's a Resemblance

I'm sure that nearly everybody online has seen the image comparing Holly Fisher to a jihadi mom (discussed here).

The woman on the left is an ally in the present fight against mandatory contraception coverage. (I don't think I would agree with the political opinions of her great-grandparents.)

The woman on the right is the great-grandmother of people who will fight to keep circumcision legal. (I don't think I would agree with her political opinions.)

The difference is time.

BTW, does this mean the anti-Hobby Lobby people are racists?

Fermat's Last Theorem and Set Theory, Part III

After noticing that the incomprehensibility of the results of expressing Fermat's Last Theorem in set theory rivals that of machine code, I wondered if it's possible to write a compiler in \(\mathrm{\TeX}\). It's possible to write a Basic interpreter in \(\mathrm{\TeX}\).

Scientific Mistake vs. Scientific Mistake

The latest spin on Hobby Lobby is that their claim that the four birth-control methods they don't cover sometimes act as abortifacients is a scientific mistake. When we look at the data that's supposed to prove it was a mistake we see that only one of the methods has sound evidence that I could locate that it is not normally an abortifacient. (On the other hand, only four pregnancies were prevented and that isn't enough to ensure that the levonorgestrel pill never acts as an abortifacient.) In the other direction, the Copper IUD looks very suspicious:

When used as emergency contraception, the Cu-IUD could also act to prevent implantation, due to copper's effect of altering molecules present in the endometrial lining. Id. However, studies show that the alteration of the endometrial lining prevents rather than disrupts implantation. Id. at 304.

In other words, at best they can show that Hobby Lobby should have refused to cover only one of the methods under dispute.

Speaking as a libertarian, I also hold they have the right to refuse to cover medications for no reason whatsoever. It is not the State's business what they cover.

Fermat's Last Theorem and Set Theory, Part II

The expression of Fermat's Last Theorem in terms of set theory is up in the form of a \(\mathrm{\TeX}\) file, a pdf file, and an html file. Warning: The html file uses MathJax and is very slow. As a bonus, I also threw in Goldbach's Conjecture.

Addendum: I found and corrected a typo in the files.