Has Progress Stalled?
According to many pessimists (example here), progress has stalled. As far as I can tell, the progress that is occurring is not particularly important because:
- Technology A is not evidence that progress is occurring because it is a purely theoretical idea with no possible products.
Theoretical example: the “ems” Robin Hanson speculates about. - Technology B is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer purely theoretical but it is still confined to laboratories.
Actual example: Detecting extra-solar planets. - Technology C is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer confined to laboratories but it is still only used for occasional stunts.
Actual example: IBM's Watson. - Technology D is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer only used for occasional stunts but it is still only affordable by giant organizations.
Actual example: Planetary exploration by robots. - Technology E is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer only affordable by giant organizations but it is still unaffordable for individuals who aren't mind-bogglingly rich.
Actual example: Space tourism. - Technology F is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer unaffordable for individuals who aren't mind-bogglingly rich but it is still beyond the wallet of most people on Earth.
Actual example: 3D printing. - Technology G is not evidence that progress is occurring although it is no longer beyond the wallet of most people on Earth but it hasn't actually progressed; it has merely gotten cheaper (and is also used for very undignified purposes).
Actual example: this blog.
1 Comments:
Oddly enough, detecting extra-solar planets is not confined to laboratories.
http://lensvid.com/gear/diy-exoplanet-detector-using-dslr/
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