According to The New York Post, “You’re 45% more likely to be murdered in de Blasio’s Manhattan.”
Let's look at more complete statistics:
- First, shootings are up but crime is down. (More guns, less crime. It's not just a slogan.)
- Second, the increase in the homicide rate from the same period in 2014 to 2015 is not statistically significant.
- Third, the increase in the homicide rate from the same period in 2013 to 2015 is a flat zero.
The propensity among some conservatives to take these statistics seriously reminds me of a conversation I had the first time I went to Manhattan by myself:
“Were you mugged?”
“Not that I noticed.”