Applying Statistical Analysis to Statistical Analysis

Megan McArdle is discussing the possibility that statistical analysis might produce better results than expert advice.

I have a question: Has anybody applied statistical analysis to statistical analysis? What is the track record of people who thought they knew better than the experts? For example, I'm sure these people (seen via TJIC) thought their grasp of computer-aided analysis meant they could redesign an entire economy.

On the other hand, what is the track record of most experts?