Yet another weird SF fan

I'm a mathematician, a libertarian, and a science-fiction fan. Common sense? What's that?

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Yet another weird SF fan

Monday, November 26, 2007

Disasters Are Getting Smaller

According to an Oxfam report:

From an average of 120 disasters a year in the early 1980s, there are now as many as 500, with Oxfam attributing the rise to unpredictable weather conditions cause by global warming.


The number of people affected by disasters has risen by 68 percent, from an average of 174 million a year between 1985 to 1994 to 254 million a year between 1995 to 2004.

In other words, a typical disaster used to affect nearly 1.5 million people but now affects only around half a million.

What could explain this pattern of more but milder disasters? Could Oxfam be counting smaller disasters? No, that couldn't be it. They are unselfish and they are believed by people wearing “Question authority” buttons so they must be accurate in all respects.

Addendum: Dailypundit points out another math problem here:

Well, lessee. First, an increase from 174 million to 254 million is an increase of 46%, not 70%. (The idiots simply divided 174 by 254 to come up with that ridiculous number.)


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Another thing you have to consider when doing this kind of calculations, is that the amount of people has risen from the former period to the latter, around 20% from 1990 to 2000. Population growth is especially large in areas which usually have a lot of natural disasters. When considering this it sounds rather logical that the amount of people affected by these disasters has gone up.

12:58 AM  

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