Yet another weird SF fan

2012-01-26T22:43:00.000-05:00

I'm an Effete Intellectual Snob

I scored 5 on this test and I'm still a reactionary crackpot.

2012-01-26T00:48:00.003-05:00

An Effect of the “Contraception Revolution”

An article on Alternet is looking forward to perfect contraception, apparently because it will supposedly make pro-natal religions obsolete. I suspect the contrary will happen. It will merely cause pro-natal people (who tend to be religious) to outbreed the rest.

An effect of slightly-imperfect contraception

While reading the above-mentioned article, I realized that slightly-imperfect contraception has produced lower birth rates among people who are both irreligious and smart. In other words, it is promoting religious smart people and atheists who are ot-nay oo-tay ight-bray. That might explain the New American Divide.

2012-01-25T23:53:00.002-05:00

One Problem with Newt Gingrich …

… is that he wants the Moon to be a state. Why can't it be an anarchy instead?

On the other hand, there is the saying “governments are for gravity wells” and the Moon has a gravity well…

2012-01-23T23:49:00.003-05:00

So That's Why People Think He's a Flake

In response to the latest Edge question: “What Is Your Favorite Deep, Elegant, or Beautiful Explanation?” Aubrey De Grey discussed, instead of something related to gerontology, the end of monogamy:

My claim is probably obvious by now. It is simply that there is nothing about sex that morally distinguishes it from other activities that are performed by two (or more) people collectively. In a world no longer driven by reproductive efficiency, and on the presumption that all parties are taking appropriate precautions in relation to pregnancy and disease, sex is overwhelmingly a recreational activity. What, then, can morally distinguish it from other recreational activities? Once we see that nothing does, reflective equilibrium thus forces us to one of two positions: either we start to resent the temerity of our regular chess opponents in playing others, or we cease to resent the equivalent in sex.

Those parts of society “driven by reproductive efficiency” will outbreed the rest whether or not lifespans are extended. As I've said before:

As for whether we should pay attention, if medical research stagnates the anti-natalists will disappear. On the other hand, if cryonics actually pays off we might have them to kick around forever. At first, they will be outvoted in elections and outbid in decision markets. Later they will be ignored completely as they become an infinitesimal fraction of the population.

I'm reminded of the people who used to think the work ethic would become obsolete. That didn't happen either.

2012-01-21T23:43:00.003-05:00

If We Need More Biodiversity…

… we need more human activity.

It's interesting how many of the crises that leftists are concerned about can be best handled by doing the exact opposite of everything they recommend.

2012-01-21T20:46:00.002-05:00

Applying the Golden Rule to Foreign Policy

Apparently, Ron Paul has been calling for applying the Golden Rule to foreign policy. If I recall correctly, Ron Paul is on the restrictive side of the immigration debate, frequently defended on the grounds that large-scale Mexican immigration is some kind of invasion. So… since I'm in favor of having the United States invaded (by Ron Paul's standards), clearly I must be in favor of invading other nations. Similarly, during the recent “Occupy Wall Street” demonstrations I wondered if the demonstrators should be bombed. Obviously, I should be in favor of bombing other nations as well.

2012-01-21T20:41:00.002-05:00

Correcting a Wall Street Journal Headline

The headline “Exodus of Workers From Continent Reverses Old Patterns” should be “Exodus of Workers From Continent Restores Old Patterns.” After all, between 1492 and the early 20th century, Europe exported people.

2012-01-21T20:08:00.001-05:00

Life Imitates The Onion

Life: New Snub-Nosed Monkey Discovered, Eaten.

Onion: New, Delicious Species Discovered.

2012-01-19T23:33:00.001-05:00

Global Warming Is a Religion After All

Tim O Reilly proves it.

2012-01-18T23:34:00.002-05:00

Hate-Speech Laws, Fence-Posts, and SOPA

Back in my Usenet days, I would frequently criticize hate-speech laws, even when the absence of such laws allowed neo-Nazis to spread propaganda:

There is also the matter that if the neo-Nazis are close to taking over, exposing their plans could possibly be interpreted as "hate speech." The absence of hate-speech laws also makes it difficult for Nazis to start repression if they ever do take over. Once they take over, they will have to hire censors, they will have to deal with people claiming to be censors who are leaking information, they will have to deal with the fact that most policeman will refuse to get involved in book burning, they will find that whatever level of government they take over will be opposed by other levels, if they actually try a massacre, they will find that any similar groups will have access to uncensored information and can be prepared, and they will find that most of the "60 million guns" in the U.S. are turned in their direction.

Let us suppose that the federal government wanted to censor something on the Internet. (Humor me.) Right now, they would have to set up a bureaucracy to blacklist web sites. That may be simple enough, but the bureaucracy would also have to go after people who circumvent the firewall. They will also need internal investigations to stop bureaucrats from leaking the data they want to censor, etc. The censors might also be out of office before the bureaucracy can be set up. In other words, Internet censorship would not be very effective right now, which may help dissuade would-be totalitarians from even trying to start it. If we pass SOPA or a similar bill, we'll have the bureaucracy and will be just an election or two from censorship.

Along similar lines, see this Samizdata discussion of fence-posts:

The problem is, they will outlaw almost everything while enforcing very little. Imprisonment by stealth. People will not know they are encircled until it is too late - like putting in all these very deep, robust fence-posts with no fence panels. All seems open. One day you will wake up and the panels are in, you are trapped and they can decide what law they wish to impose to nail whomsoever they desire.

2012-01-17T23:59:00.003-05:00

Has the State Taken Possession of Our Kidneys?

If the State can tell you whether you can donate your own kidney to your own child it has taken possession of your kidneys and may decide that somebody it chooses needs them more.

The State might not be at fault this time; it is currently possible to go somewhere else. When the State sets treatment guidelines there will be no “somewhere else.”

2012-01-16T23:50:00.002-05:00

A Difference between Urinegate and the Abu Ghraib Incident

The Abu Ghraib made enemy fighters less willing to surrender. Urinegate might make them less willing to fight to the death.

2012-01-15T23:50:00.002-05:00

The Iron Lady and Dwight Schrute

Virginia Postrel's review of The Iron Lady reminds me of an episode of The Office in which Dwight tries to keep Jim away from the office by reminding him of his family. Was the movie an attempt to keep conservative women out of politics? If it's successful, will it be followed by attacks on conservatives for not having women in their leadership?

2012-01-14T22:02:00.002-05:00

Why?

According to Andrew Stuttaford:

From the WSJ’s interview with Rick Santorum:
Mr. Santorum also believes that making babies creates wealth. It’s very difficult to grow an economy with a shrinking population, he says, pointing to the “demographic winter in Europe” as a cause of that region’s troubles.
This is somewhat akin to arguing that the United States risks starvation because there are fewer farm workers than there once were. Times and productivity have moved on. The belief that rising per capita income (the number that counts: the overall size of the economy is a relative irrelevance) depends on population increase is an idea that technology and globalization ought to have left behind.

Why? What astounding piece of technology has made people obsolete? (If you answer “Watson,” I've already considered that.) I suspect that the older arguments for slow arguments for slow population growth are becoming less relevant. Capital investment is still important but capital can multiply faster when it consists of bits instead of atoms. Globalization might seem more relevant on the grounds that local population is less important than it used to be … but it also makes global population more important.

But wait, there's more. We also see:

Indications (pre-dating the 08/09 slump) that the American economy has been finding it increasingly difficult to generate jobs at a rate that keeps pace with the country’s growing population are a warning sign of further difficulties to come.

The “economy” is not a single Huge Thing with a limited number of jobs it can generate. It consists of human beings. (It's possible that the decline in question is due to a decline in the startup demographic.)

I won't more than mention the possibility that the total population is the important number and per capita income is merely a means to that end.

2012-01-12T23:55:00.002-05:00

Find More Paradoxes

Maverick Philosopher (seen via Fourth Checkraise) is asking for more paradoxes of illegal immigration. I have a few:

The Paradox of Partial Globalization. Why would allowing imports be good when for the products of human labor but not for the humans themselves?
The Paradox of Part-Time Libertarianism. Why are competition-reducing regulations bad when the competitors were born in the right place but good when the competitors were born on the other side of an imaginary line?
The Paradox of Part-Time Opposition to Malthusian Theories. Why is increasing the population good when the new people come from the womb but not when they come from the boat?

In short, why are the mainstreams of both the right and the left on the wrong sides of this issue?

2012-01-11T23:53:00.004-05:00

The Very Real Danger of Believing Bulshytt

In the Atlantic, Ari LeVaux (seen via BoingBoing) tries to tie a recent paper on microRNA to the supposed dangers of GMOs. Apparently any recently-discovered phenomenon that hasn't been analyzed yet is regarded as dangerous until proved otherwise. (ObSF: Beowulf Schaefer's motto in Larry Niven's Known-Space series: “If you don't understand it, it's dangerous.”) There's only one minor problem: MicroRNA can be found in “natural” foods and not only in GMOs. If some of them really do turn out to be dangerous, it might even be possible to design GMOs that don't have the dangerous ones.

2012-01-09T23:58:00.002-05:00

Update on Guns and Tex-Mex Food

Several years after I mentioned it, NCBI ROFL is treating the link between guns and spices with the seriousness it deserves.

2012-01-07T23:55:00.003-05:00

A Question about the “Santorum” Insult

I have a question about the attempt to turn the surname of Rick Santorum into a vulgar term. What's the point of it?

This won't turn us reactionaries against him. (Many of us reactionaries haven't heard of the vulgar term and most of the rest of us simply ignore it.) This won't turn the “mushy middle” against him either. (Most of them haven't heard of this yet and are likely to be put off by anybody who tries reminding them.) It might get out the vote a little on the left but most of the leftists who've heard of this are already “knee-jerk” Democrats.

There's also a possibility that this might cause a relapse of “homophobia” among people who would otherwise ignore homosexuality entirely. Another possible side effect is that middle-of-the-road people will attribute the results of Google searchers to evil “hackers” and vote for Congressbeings who support SOPA.

There's only one result of this that might benefit the left. It might discourage former leftists who have been having second thoughts from coming out. If anybody in the middle is reading this, you might try reflecting on what that attempt to censor political discourse implies about the left. Are they afraid of contrary opinions?

2012-01-05T23:53:00.002-05:00

More Predictions

You can find more predictions of the year 2000 (from the year 1900) here (seen via Io9). I'd count 5, 8, 9, 10, 18, 19, 21, 29 as hits … a better batting average than Robert Heinlein.

2012-01-04T23:47:00.001-05:00

Rating Heinlein's 1952 Predictions

In 1952, Robert Heinlein made a series of predictions (my comments are in italics):

Interplanetary travel is waiting at your front door — C.O.D. It's yours when you pay for it.

Miss
Contraception and control of disease is revising relations between the sexes to an extent that will change our entire social and economic structure.

Hit, at least for now.
The most important military fact of this century is that there is no way to repel an attack from outer space.

Miss
It is utterly impossible that the United States will start a "preventive war." We will fight when attacked, either directly or in a territory we have guaranteed to defend.

Miss. You can quibble on the grounds that Gulf War II had not yet taken place by 2000, but it didn't take much longer.
In fifteen years the housing shortage will be solved by a "breakthrough" into new technologies which will make every house now standing as obsolete as privies.

Miss. The alleged housing shortage was solved by the prosaic means of building more homes the old-fashioned way.
We'll all be getting a little hungry by and by.

Miss (and how!)
The cult of the phony in art will disappear. So-called "modern art" will be discussed only by psychiatrists.

I regret to say this is also a miss. On the other hand, we philistines are less intimidated by artists than before.
Freud will be classed as a pre-scientific, intuitive pioneer and psychoanalysis will be replaced by a growing, changing "operational psychology" based on measurement and prediction.

Hit, mostly. Psychology is still a bit dubious … and the neurological part is particularly noted for pathetically-small samples.
Cancer, the common cold, and tooth decay will all be conquered; the revolutionary new problem in medical research will be to accomplish "regeneration," i.e., to enable a man to grow a new leg, rather than fit him with an artificial limb.

Miss.
By the end of this century mankind will have explored this solar system, and the first ship intended to reach the nearest star will be a-building.

Miss (sigh).
Your personal telephone will be small enough to carry in your handbag. Your house telephone will record messages, answer simple inquiries, and transmit vision.

Hit, mostly. The personal telephones are likely to answer queries and transmit vision.
Intelligent life will be found on Mars.

Miss.
A thousand miles an hour at a cent a mile will be commonplace; short hauls will be made in evacuated subways at extreme speed.

Miss.
A major objective of applied physics will be to control gravity.

Miss.
We will not achieve a "World State" in the predictable future. Nevertheless, Communism will vanish from this planet.

Hit, mostly. What's left of communism are nationalist governments that pay a decreasing amount of lip service to Marx.
Increasing mobility will disenfranchise a majority of the population. About 1990 a constitutional amendment will do away with state lines while retaining the semblance.

Miss, I think. State lines are gradually being erased by Federal obnoxiousness instead of a Constitutional Amendment. On the other hand, there have been some steps back from the brink, e.g., the 55 mph speed limit is back to a state matter.
All aircraft will be controlled by a giant radar net run on a continent-wide basis by a multiple electronic "brain."

Miss.
Fish and yeast will become our principal sources of proteins. Beef will be a luxury; lamb and mutton will disappear.

Miss.
Mankind will not destroy itself, nor will "Civilization" be destroyed.

Hit.

Four hits out of 19. That's better than Sturgeon's Law but not by much.

If we look for systematic errors, four of the misses were a matter of overestimating space travel and two of them were a matter of underestimating agriculture.

2012-01-03T01:11:00.002-05:00

A Use for the Litany of Tarski

The only possible response to this alleged pro-choice argument (from someone who was pro-life until she got pregnant) is the Litany of Tarski:

If the sky is blue
I desire to believe that the sky is blue

If the sky is not blue
I desire to believe that the sky is not blue.

The fact that someone has a motive to believe X is not any kind of argument for X. It is better to be a hypocrite than to lie to yourself.

2012-01-03T00:37:00.002-05:00

Sometimes We Wingnuts Are Too Paranoid

I doubt if the use of an octopus metaphor implies antisemitism. That claim didn't make sense when used by the other side and it doesn't make sense now.

In any case, the first thing that comes to my mind when I see an octopus metaphor is the novel THE OCTOPUS: A Story of California by Frank Norris. Octopus metaphors are so common that there's even a blog devoted to them.

2012-01-02T23:41:00.002-05:00

A Minor Problem with the Song “The Word of God”

There is a minor problem with the song “The Word of God” (mentioned on LessWrong): The song sets up a contrast between “Humans wrote the Bible” and “God wrote the world.” Humans are also part of the world and anything written by humans was indirectly written by God.

Yes. I will admit this applies to more than one religious tradition.

2012-01-01T00:01:00.003-05:00

We're Waiting

A few years ago, environmentalists claimed:

Over 4.5 Billion people could die from Global Warming-related causes by 2012

We were promised an eco-catastrophe but did we get one? Nooooo…

I'm also reminded of a line in the movie Jacob's Ladder:

According to this, you're already dead.

2011-12-29T23:49:00.002-05:00

“… On Some Dark and Lonely Nights, You Can Still Hear the Howling of the Libertarians”

Cracked on the Kowloon Walled City:

Then, in 1948, the British went to clear the area, but failed so spectacularly that everybody, both English and Chinese alike, issued an official decree of "Screw that place." They agreed to let Kowloon be, but cut it off from all government services, which in communist China was pretty much everything: police, water, electricity, road maintenance, postal services and so on.

They basically Thunderdomed a whole city, and then just walked away.

And to everybody's mutual surprise, Kowloon absolutely thrived on the anarchy.

A counterexample to the theory that civilization requires government.

2011-12-29T01:56:00.003-05:00

Does This Mean the Global Warming Crisis Is Over?

According to Energy Self-Reliant States, solar energy will become cheaper than conventional energy in most of the U.S. over the next decade or two. Does this mean, the potential danger from AGW will soon be over?

In particular, does this mean we can ignore Naomi Klein?

Or will this be another case of bait and switch? Will we be told that we don't need nuclear etc. because of cheap solar and then be told that we need to “rethink” capitalism when solar isn't enough?

2011-12-28T23:13:00.002-05:00

A Brief Note on the War on Christmas

There might be a War on Christmas but the anti-Christmas side isn't even close to winning. It looks like the pro-Christmas side has mistaken the propaganda (“WE ARE THE WAVE OF THE FUTURE” and similar bulshytt) of the anti-Christmas side for reality.

2011-12-27T23:52:00.002-05:00

Rating the Ten Plotlines

Io9 has a list of Ten plotlines you'll find in science fiction - over and over again:

Robots
Interstellar Travel
Time Travel
Superpowers
Bodily Transformation
Parallel Universe
Alien Invasion
Immortality
The Post-Apocalyptic World
Godlike Aliens

I would rate the likelihood of the ten tropes (from most likely to least likely) as follows:

Robots
Bodily Transformation
Immortality
Interstellar Travel
The Post-Apocalyptic World
Godlike Aliens
Alien Invasion
Superpowers
Parallel Universe
Time Travel

Parts of the above ordering are trivially obvious. For example, bodily transformation must be more likely than immortality or superpowers because either immortality or superpowers imply bodily transformation. Immortality is almost certainly more likely than interstellar travel because it will probably take longer than a current human lifespan to get from star to star. (This might not apply if it's ETs doing the traveling.) Alien invasion is less likely than interstellar travel, a post-apocalyptic world, or godlike aliens because aliens will need to be godlike to invade at the end of that long a supply line, because anything resembling a successful alien invasion will produce a post-apocalyptic world, and because aliens will need interstellar travel to get here.

2011-12-26T23:58:00.004-05:00

Red Carpet Wanted

If the current trend toward anti-Christian lynch mobs in Islamic countries continues, we have the opportunity to get a wave of immigrants who know the Middle East from the inside and loathe the nuttier brands of Islam.

We are missing the opportunity, owing to the fact that immigration controls backed by alleged right-wingers have given the leftists currently in charge the ability to keep potential allies out.

As I have said before, we must remember the most useful question to ask when considering a proposed government activity: Would I trust my worst enemy with the power? We trusted governments with the power to keep people out and right now they're abusing it.

Addendum: This makes more sense than the cartoonist realized.

2011-12-23T01:21:00.004-05:00

Will Desalinization Make the Sea Saltier?

According to at least one environmentalist:

Rivers are overdiverted, causing water shortages downstream. Aquifers are being overtapped. Where is the water to come from so as to safeguard the environment. If you say, "the ocean with desalination plants" that is NOT an answer either - not in the long run. Billions and billions of people...that is a lot of water to take from the ocean with the concomittent pile-up of vast salt extracts. What do you do with that? You cannpt add it back to the oceans because at this scale you begin to increase the salinity of the ocean which would devestate the life within it.

What do you think happens to the water you drink? Does it slosh around inside your body? If it doesn't come out, you will explode. Every last ounce of that water will eventually exit and make its way back to the ocean, where it will dilute all that nasty salt.

The same phenomena will occur with water used in irrigation, bathing, or anything else.

2011-12-21T14:59:00.001-05:00

This Explains Mr. Creosote

According to the very latest research (i.e., stuff that will be reversed next year):

The sugar in sweet foods stimulates a reflex that expands your stomach, writes senior researcher Arnold Berstad and assistant doctor Jørgen Valeur from Lovisenberg Diakonale Hospital in the latest issue of The Journal of the Norwegian Medical Association.

And finally, a wafer thin mint…

And furthermore: This also explains why there's always room for Jell-O.

2011-12-20T01:13:00.001-05:00

To Newt Gingrich

If you sound too much like the archetypal Democrat, Andrew Jackson, you're doing something wrong.

2011-12-19T22:29:00.002-05:00

A Brief Note on “Miniver Cheevy”

“Miniver Cheevy” by Edwin Arlington Robinson starts:

Miniver Cheevy, child of scorn,
Grew lean while he assailed the seasons;
He wept that he was ever born,
And he had reasons.

Today, of course, he would be an anti-natalist.

2011-12-18T23:36:00.002-05:00

Indbur II

Kim Jong-il has achieved room temperature. It remains to be seen whether he will leave a much-needed gap in world politics.

2011-12-17T22:02:00.002-05:00

Financial Regulation via Chronophone

A few years ago, Eliezer Yudkowsky speculated about the effects of a chronophone:

Archimedes of Syracuse was the greatest mathematician and engineer of the ancient world. Imagine that Archimedes invented a temporal telephone ("chronophone" for short) which lets him talk to you, here in the 21st century. You can make suggestions! For purposes of the thought experiment, ignore the morality of altering history - just assume that it is proper to optimize post-Archimedean history as though it were simply the ordinary future. If so, it would seem that you are in a position to accomplish a great deal of good.

Unfortunately, Archimedes's chronophone comes with certain restrictions upon its use: It cannot transmit information that is, in a certain sense, "too anachronistic".

You cannot suggest, for example, that women should have the vote. Maybe you could persuade Archimedes of Syracuse of the issue, and maybe not; but it is a moot point, the chronophone will not transmit the advice. Or rather, it will transmit the advice, but it will come out as: "Install a tyrant of great personal virtue, such as Hiero II, under whose rule Syracuse experienced fifty years of peace and prosperity." That's how the chronophone avoids transmitting overly anachronistic information - it transmits cognitive strategies rather than words. If you follow the policy of "Check my brain's memory to see what my contemporary culture recommends as a wise form of political organization", what comes out of the chronophone is the result of Archimedes following the same policy of looking up in his brain what his era lauds as a wise form of political organization.

If we sent advice to increase financial regulation to politicians of a mere decade ago via this chronophone, what would it come out as? If we said “Make sure financial institutions only invest in the soundest securities,” it might come out as “Only invest in top-rated mortgage securities and European sovereign debt.” After all, the major worries of most of the naughties were that foreigners would compete with Americans and that a combination of wars and tax cuts would drive America bankrupt. (Clearly, we should only invest in industries that were immune to imports and off-shoring and only invest in sovereign debt from peaceful countries unafraid of taxes.)

2011-12-17T21:15:00.002-05:00

A Brief Note on Net Neutrality

If net neutrality laws are passed, they will be written by the same people responsible for SOPA.

2011-12-14T00:47:00.003-05:00

More Brains!

Studying to be a London taxi driver can increase the brain size of at least 39 people.

A few years ago, I would have taken a small study like this more seriously. Now it is, at best, an indication that a real study might be worthwhile.

2011-12-12T23:34:00.005-05:00

Amazing News

Robin Hanson has admitted to being human.

As is often the case, a Robin Hanson post reminded me of R. A. Lafferty's SF. This time it wasn't the post, it was the anti-natalist commenters. There are Ouden worshipers out there.
“…and may holy Ouden reign for never and never.”

As for whether we should pay attention, if medical research stagnates the anti-natalists will disappear. On the other hand, if cryonics actually pays off we might have them to kick around forever. At first, they will be outvoted in elections and outbid in decision markets. Later they will be ignored completely as they become an infinitesimal fraction of the population. They won’t, however, disappear. Nonexistence is always for others.

As for whether we should pay attention to their argument … there is no argument. They appear to be basing their theories on the claim that causing pain is always wrong. I disagree with that premise and there is no rational way to establish it. In related news, I put chili powder and horseradish on my lunch and I have a dentist appointment on Wednesday.

2011-12-11T03:28:00.003-05:00

Not Every Atheist Is a Darwinist

The subtitle of The Prime Directive is “Do not impose harm. Atheism – Anarchism – Antinatalism”. (The brand of anarchism is question is that which regards property rights as imposed by governments, earlier criticized here.)

In the other direction, not every Darwinist is an atheist.

2011-12-10T23:46:00.002-05:00

Are Intellectuals More Arrogant Than Non-Intellectuals?

According to Arnold Kling:

Cognitive psychologist Daniel Kahneman's new book, Thinking Fast and Slow, is a capstone to a distinguished career spent documenting the systematic flaws in human reasoning. He finds it useful to describe us as having two systems for thinking.

System One, as he calls it, is quick, intuitive, and decisive. It may be described as often wrong but never in doubt. System One is always active and plays a role in every decision that we make because it operates rapidly and unconsciously.

System Two is deliberative and logical. In principle, System Two can detect and correct the errors of System One. However, System Two has limited capacity, and often we do not invoke it before arriving at a conclusion. Even worse, we may deploy System Two to rationalize the conclusions of System One, rather than to question those conclusions and suggest appropriate changes.

Intellectuals are supposed to use System Two. Now let's look at who's arrogant:

Suppose you were to ask yourself how well you understand the world around you. How accurate is your map of reality?

If you interrogate System Two, it might reply, “There are many phenomena about which I know little. In the grand scheme of things, I am just blindly groping through a world that is far too complex for me to possibly understand.”

However, if you were to interrogate System One, it might reply, “My map is terrific. Why, I am very nearly omniscient!”

System One is the more arrogant system here.

On the other hand, intellectuals don't always use System Two. I first noticed this in the course of SDI debates, in which scientists criticizing SDI would almost always say “I say this as a human being, not as a scientist.” I suspect that intellectuals make the least sense when they try using System One and fail.

In other words, I don't think intellectuals should stop trying to be smart. When they stop trying to be smart, they managed to sound even sillier than when they were using System Two.

2011-12-09T02:20:00.001-05:00

Seen on a Bumper Sticker

PROUD TO BE AN EARTHLING

I disagree. That bumper sticker is UNFAIR TO MARTIANS!

2011-12-08T23:29:00.002-05:00

How Could You Believe Me When I Said I Loved You When You Know I've Been a Liar All My Life?

According to the latest research, sugar makes us sleepy and protein wakes us up. According to yesterday's theories, sugar was an energy food and protein contained sleep-inducing tryptophan. Apparently, today's research, based on indirect correlations in a complex field with lots of confounding factors, says that yesterday's similar research was bulshytt.

… and this time it's different.

2011-12-07T23:53:00.001-05:00

Another Note on Marmite

I just realized that Marmite is, quite literally, the result of “scraping the bottom of the barrel.”

2011-12-06T01:38:00.002-05:00

If This Is True, It Is Also False

According to The View from Hell:

The existence of an epistemic peer who holds a contrary belief is more devastating than any argument.

Since most people (and, presumably, most epistemic peers) disagree with this …

Similarly, if the second choice here is true, it is also false.

2011-12-06T01:19:00.003-05:00

A Question That Must Be Asked

Did the organization run by the anonymous test taker need a bailout in 2008?

2011-12-06T00:57:00.002-05:00

I Speak Nerd Fluently

Yes. The LOTR jokes are funny.

As for a sandwich containing Marmite, I've found that Marmite, mayonnaise, radicchio, and Edam cheese (and, of course, bread) go together. Marmite is also useful in perking up succotash (along with onions, garlic, chili powder, and horseradish).

2011-12-03T11:49:00.000-05:00

Does This Count as Macroscopic?

Quantum entanglement has been found in objects big enough to see. Despite that, I don't think they count as macroscopic. 10¹⁶ carbon atoms is less than a Planck mass. Above a Planck mass, gravitational effects are greater than quantum effects. I think that means it's possible to tell where something is by its gravitational field. In other words, above a Planck mass, all objects are observed whether or not somebody is looking.

2011-12-01T22:41:00.002-05:00

Are Atheists Trustworthy?

Robin Hanson recently discussed poll results that indicate many people distrust atheists. I saw the following quote in the resulting comment thread:

A growing body of social science research reveals that atheists, and non-religious people in general, are far from the unsavory beings many assume them to be. On basic questions of morality and human decency — issues such as governmental use of torture, the death penalty, punitive hitting of children, racism, sexism, homophobia, anti-Semitism, environmental degradation or human rights — the irreligious tend to be more ethical than their religious peers, particularly compared with those who describe themselves as very religious.

In other words, we can trust atheists to adhere to atheist standards. (If you want to be really cynical, we can trust atheists to say they adhere to atheist standards.)

My stereotype of atheists, for what little is worth, isn't that they're “wild men.” (Maybe nothingists are “wild men.”) My stereotype of atheists is that they're self-congratulatory people patting themselves on the back for being more rational than anybody else.

2011-11-30T23:45:00.002-05:00

Is It My Imagination?

Do the pro-“pickup artist” comments on right-wing blogs come mainly from anonymous commenters? (I was inspired by the comments here.)

If so, the rest of us should tell them that you're not a dominant male until you put your name (or at least a recognizable handle) to your posts.

2011-11-29T02:25:00.002-05:00

Reading about Anarchist Peoples

While reading The Art of Not Being Governed by James C. Scott and thinking about the difficulties of states attempting to subdue anarchist peoples, I was reminded of the phrase “herding cats” … especially while reading about the Miaou people of southern China.

2011-11-29T00:51:00.002-05:00

Two Quotes

From Eliezer Yudkowsky:

Creating a true child is the only moral and metaethical problem I know that is even harder than the shape of a Friendly AI.

From G. K. Chesterton:

If a thing is worth doing, it is worth doing badly.

The Chesterton quote makes the Yudkowsky quote look less wrong (a phrase that sounds familiar somehow).

2011-11-29T00:02:00.003-05:00

Other Terms for “Illegal Aliens”

Mickey Kaus is asking for terms for “illegal aliens,” now that “undocumented immigrants” is becoming passé. I recommend “violators of a social contract in restraint of trade.” Since that's a bit of a mouthful, a shorter term might be “unwanted aliens” analogous to “unwanted children.”

2011-11-27T01:16:00.004-05:00

Two Brief Notes on the Pepper-Spraying Cop

The traditional method of handling riots isn't pepper spray; it's grape shot or worse:
Chinese journalist: “President Obama, how do you account for an American police officer using pepper spray on citizens?” Obama laughs: “Are you saying we should have used tanks?”
For a few days before the pepper-spraying incident, there were numerous complaints (for example, here) about the destruction of a “people's library.” I don't recall hearing much about it since then. Did the library heal itself? Or were they looking for an excuse to complain and can only complain about one thing at a time. (The good news: The left wing cannot fight a two-front meme war.)

2011-11-26T18:33:00.002-05:00

Indigent Marine Wildlife?

According to Compare Electricity Rates (seen via Greenie Watch):

In an effort to safeguard the sanctuary of indigent marine wildlife, the city of San Diego is set to enact laws that would ban birthday parties at local parks within the vicinity of said wildlife.

Poor fish.

2011-11-26T18:15:00.003-05:00

Time to Buy Google?

When Google got involved in currently-cool energy technologies, I said it might be time to sell Google. (You can find reasons to avoid currently-cool technologies here.)

Google recently announced they're stopping their “green” energy project.

2011-11-24T01:28:00.002-05:00

Crickets?

According to Fark:

Conservatives: "The Occupy Protests are costing cities $13 million." OWS: "The bailouts cost the taxpayers $700 billion." Conservatives: *crickets*

Hel-lo! I ranted about the bailouts at the time. I have no reason to believe this is different from American conservatives in general.

2011-11-22T22:37:00.000-05:00

A Possible Consequence of Polygamy

Fourth Checkraise is discussing the consequences of the legalization of polygamy:

On the other hand, one part of me mischievously wants polygamy to become legalized and widespread, since a society that has to effectively stomp down a quarter of its young males simply could not and thus would not be very liberal in most other aspects either, the realities of the zero-sum race undeniable to everyone who wants their children to have a good life.

One possible scenario: Parents who have some reason to believe their children won't be likely to get to the top of the heap might opt for only having daughters. (There might be a method of selecting sperm by then; I'd rather not recommend sex-selective abortion.) Since the poor outnumber the rich, there might be more women than men.

Right now, that seems unlikely; sex selection currently favors males. On the other hand, those parents willing to have daughters will be a disproportionate share of successful grandparents. We can expect sex selection to tilt in the other direction.

One way to look at this is that the resources devoted to raising boys and girls will be the same but divided among fewer boys.

The real problem will be signaling. People who aren't that talented but who try signaling talent anyway might insist on having sons.

2011-11-22T22:06:00.000-05:00

The Coolest Mathematics Journal

It's obviously the Antarctica Journal of Mathematics (seen via Computational Complexity).

2011-11-20T00:55:00.002-05:00

Should the Police Spray Pepper at Demonstrators?

Why not horseradish or onions?

Celebrate diversity! Equal time for other spices!

2011-11-19T20:45:00.001-05:00

There's No Official Evidence That Water Controls Dehydration

According to an EU regulation:

They applied for the right to state that “regular consumption of significant amounts of water can reduce the risk of development of dehydration” as well as preventing a decrease in performance.

However, last February, the European Food Standards Authority (EFSA) refused to approve the statement.

A meeting of 21 scientists in Parma, Italy, concluded that reduced water content in the body was a symptom of dehydration and not something that drinking water could subsequently control.

In a related story, a few years ago, an article in the British Medical Journal pointed out that:

As with many interventions intended to prevent ill health, the effectiveness of parachutes has not been subjected to rigorous evaluation by using randomised controlled trials.

I thought that was intended as a joke but now I'm not so sure.

2011-11-18T00:38:00.003-05:00

Occupy Wall Street and a Marvin Minsky Quote

According to at least one OWS protester (around 4:40):

I'm more against private property rather than personal property.

According to Marvin Minsky:

No, no; your trouble is that you're confusing a thing with itself!

I was reminded somehow. The joke here may also be relevant.

2011-11-17T23:18:00.003-05:00

The New York Stock Exchange Opened Today

Me to OWS: Nyaaaahhhh, nyaaaahhhh, nyaaaahhhh, nyaaaahhhh, phphphphtttt!!!!

Today's NYSE market volume: 1,024,669,206.
Yesterday's NYSE market volume: 918,719,737.

2011-11-15T00:39:00.002-05:00

Debate Wanted

On the one hand, Amory Lovins, Joseph Romm, et al. assure us that we don’t need nuclear energy, that negawatts and solar will suffice and, on the other hand, Naomi Klein tells us that we must rethink capitalism instead.

Putting it together, they're claiming that solar, etc. beats nuclear fission and that totalitarianism beats solar … except that the claim that totalitarianism beats nuclear fission is obvious nonsense.

2011-11-14T23:00:00.004-05:00

Tea Parties vs. OWS?

A warning from Bill Quick:

They foresee bands of black-masked Occupiers attacking and scattering any legally organized demonstrations the Tea Party may arrange for. The cops can't do it, but these new Obama Brown Shirts can, while the cops look the other way.

I doubt if that will succeed. They can turn out hordes of bodies but they have no ability at all to shoot deserters.

Please recall that the Other Side is full of bluffers. It was a bluff when they warned of a “long hot summer” full of urban riots if Reagan were elected. It was a bluff when they threatened to make the country ungovernable if Bush were re-elected. It was a bluff when they claimed the Israeli crackdown on Palestinians would intensify the terrorism.

Just in case they're not bluffing… One possible tactic is a combination of an international radiation symbol sticker, a recording of a Geiger counter, and watching the Other Side run away. Another possible tactic is using quarterstaffs.

Addendum: They don't sound that dangerous.

2011-11-14T22:29:00.002-05:00

W. S. Gilbert on Sexual Harassment

From The Mikado by Gilbert and Sullivan:

Our great Mikado, virtuous man,
When he to rule our land began,
Resolved to try
A plan whereby
Young men might best be steadied.

So he decreed, in words succinct,
That all who flirted, leered or winked
(Unless connubially linked),
Should forthwith be beheaded …

The recent scandals of Herman Cain and Anthony Weiner reminded me of this somehow.

2011-11-10T02:28:00.000-05:00

Paging Arkady Darrell

I'm sure Arkady Darrell (of Second Foundation by Isaac Asimov) could explain the problem with this tactic.

2011-11-09T18:48:00.004-05:00

Panini Bread vs. Occupy Wall Street

According to The New York Post (seen via The Wall Street Journal):

She and her employees are terrified by the constant threats, which she said began after she demanded the protesters stop using her shop’s restroom as a place to bathe every day.

The final straw came about two weeks ago, when the demonstrators broke a bathroom sink, flooding the shop, and clogged the toilet -- setting her back $3,000 in damages.

Wait a moment… A month or two ago, I complained about a Federal regulation that prohibits off-label uses of toilet-bowl cleaners. If the OWS protesters are dirtying toilets, any use of a toilet-bowl cleaner to repel them would count as an on-label use and would thus be legal. So the next time they invade, the owner might take some bleach and toilet-bowl cleaner and strike back with a gas attack:

NaOCl (bleach) + 2 HCl (toilet-bowl cleaner) → NaCl + H₂O + Cl₂ (chlorine gas)

I disagree with The Wall Street Journal's headline

I disagree with The Wall Street Journal's headline:

This Is What Anarchy Looks Like

In an anarchy, potential victims would be much better armed.

2011-11-08T00:35:00.002-05:00

Woody Allen on Occupy Wall Street

In days of yore, back when Woody Allen was still funny, he wrote an essay “A Brief Yet Helpful Guide to Civil Disobedience” that included:

Demonstration and Marches. The key point about a demonstration is that it must be seen. Hence the term "demonstration." If a person demonstrates privately in his own home, this is not technically a demonstration but merely "acting silly" or "behaving like an ass."

I'm reminded somehow.

2011-11-06T23:35:00.002-05:00

Codex Seraphinianus

… is now online (seen via jwz (seen via TJIC's twitter)).

A question that must be asked: What drugs was Luigi Serafini on?

2011-11-05T21:00:00.003-04:00

A Sociological Study That's Actually Needed

After reading about the latest nonsense from anti-vaccine parents, I wondered about the following questions:

What drugs are they on?
What drugs were they on in college?
What universities did they attend?
What did they major in?
What companies do they work for?
Did those companies need bail-outs?

The answers to the above questions might help us find out if there is higher-education bubble and, if there is one, where it's concentrated.

Addendum: They appear to be only high-school graduates. Maybe college is still worth something after all …

2011-11-02T23:55:00.001-04:00

We're Standing on Zanzibar

Still no sign of eptification.

2011-11-01T23:39:00.003-04:00

Karl Marx Compared His Followers to Occupy Wall Street

According to Karl Marx:

Hegel remarks somewhere that all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.

Groucho Marx on Occupy Wall Street

According to Groucho Marx:

Whatever it is, I'm against it!

2011-10-31T00:33:00.001-04:00

Paying by Check …

… is not a right guaranteed by the Constitution. (I was reminded of that by the mouse-over text of this XKCD.)

2011-10-29T22:53:00.002-04:00

Update on the Neutered and Lobotomized Chemistry Sets

Drbuzz0 is considering trying to revive the Atomic Energy Lab.

2011-10-28T00:37:00.003-04:00

This List of Nuclear Accidents Is Incomplete

A list of nuclear accidents somehow didn't include all the leaks in nuclear power plants that occur in restrooms.

The list in question has to be one of lamest excuses to suppress a technology I've ever seen. It includes the times a nuclear-power plant worker brought a porno magazine to work or accidentally shut down a reactor while cleaning the control room. It includes an “attack” on a nuclear-power plant by jellyfish and numerous instances of reactors being shut down by false alarms. A typical scenario can be summarized as “Some trivial problem occurred. The reactor shut down and was later restarted.” For example:

Nuclear Power's Dirty Little Secret

One June 17, 1970, an operator at the LaCrosse nuclear plant near Genoa, Wisconsin, used a dust cloth to clean the control room. The cloth snagged the identification tag attached to one of the key switches and moved it around to the OFF position. The repositioning of this single switch caused the reactor to automatically shut down.

To prevent this unfortunate event from happening again, the control room operators were instructed to use a feather duster when cleaning. [23]

The training program for operators consists of more than a year's worth of classroom instruction and simulator exercises. The proper techniques for feather-dusting are not covered during this otherwise comprehensive training.

Another scenario is that of becoming aware of a potential problem and fixing it:

Easy Doesn't Do It

In late May 1990, the Brunswick nuclear plant in North Carolina was shut down because the operators flunked their requalification exams. In early May, fourteen of 20 operators and three of four operating crews had failed the test. On May 19 20, all four crews and eight of 27 operators failed re-tests.

A spokesman for the plant attributed the failures to a change in the retraining program requested by the NRC. According to the spokesman: "The NRC exam is very difficult." [24]

Hopefully, nuclear power plants will only have easy accidents. Hard accidents can be so darned inconvenient.

Does that mean they fired Homer Simpson?

2011-10-27T23:40:00.002-04:00

I Disagree with This Characterization of Washington, DC

According to Mike Church, Washington, DC is “Mordor on The Potomac River.”

The proper term is “Angband.”

2011-10-26T02:03:00.002-04:00

Wasn't This by Robert Heinlein?

A “self-made” billionaire wants to mine the moon.

2011-10-25T23:30:00.003-04:00

Student-Loan Bankruptcy and the Signaling Model of Education

Matthew Yglesias points out:

But there’s something special about student loans. Two things, in fact. If you default on your mortgage, the bank gets to take your house. Same thing with an auto loan. And if you can’t pay your credit card bill, you can discharge the debt in bankruptcy. But the lender can’t repossess your degree, and the 2005 bankruptcy bill made it impossible to discharge the debt.

Wait a moment… Why can't a degree be repossessed? According to the signaling model of education (commonly found at EconLog and Overcoming Bias), college degrees are mainly an expensive way to signal a combination of intelligence and reliability. If someone defaults on a student loan, it makes sense for the degree to be revoked as his/her reliability is now in doubt.

In any case, prior to 1998 student loans were bankruptable. The very next year a long-dormant student protest movement came back from from the dead, filling a much-needed gap in political discourse. The non-bankruptable nature of student loans is a recent and regrettable innovation. It's not a traditional feature of capitalism.

My slogan for cutting off the oxygen supply of Occupy Wall Street: Forward to 1998!

2011-10-23T17:10:00.002-04:00

Morton's Fork on “Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me”

A few minutes ago, I heard a classic example of Morton's Fork on the NPR news quiz “Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me.” Approximate quote from memory:

A survey of our listeners showed that one fifth of you bought a lottery ticket in the past year. That means two things: One, four fifths of you are smart. You're not going to throw a dollar away on a bad bet. That means you must have money saved up you can donate to NPR. Two, one fifth of you are dreamers willing to take a wild chance. You should know there's a possibility NPR will pick a new radio host from its contributors and it could be you.

Warning: I was not taking notes and I'm too lazy to listen to it a second time, so I might have a detail or two wrong.

2011-10-22T20:54:00.001-04:00

The Next Step

The next step after assassination boardgames is, of course, a Broadway musical … except it's been done.

2011-10-22T20:49:00.001-04:00

Who Is Responsible for Neutered and Lobotomized Chemistry Sets?

It's people who think like this.

2011-10-22T20:25:00.002-04:00

Having It Both Ways

A few months ago, I said that some people claim that scarcity is inevitable and therefore capitalism is obsolete and that others claim that abundance is inevitable and therefore capitalism is obsolete. I have finally found someone who makes both claims.

2011-10-18T23:48:00.002-04:00

Reinventing Conservatism?

According to one of the theorists reputed to be behind the recent Occupation of Wall Street:

The process is what scholars of anarchism call "direct action." For example, instead of petitioning the government to build a well, members of a community might simply build it themselves. It is an example of anarchism's philosophy, or what Mr. Graeber describes as "democracy without a government."

Wait a moment… Isn't doing something yourself instead of waiting for a government to do it also known as “capitalism”?

On the other hand, we also see:

Soon after the magazine Adbusters published an appeal to set up a "peaceful barricade" on Wall Street, Mr. Graeber spent six weeks in New York helping to plan the demonstrations before an initial march by protesters on September 17, which culminated in the occupation.

Does this mean they have no objection to a “peaceful barricade” around Zuccotti Park?

2011-10-17T01:34:00.002-04:00

Bait and Switch

It looks like the Occupation of Wall Street is an example of bait and switch. They take a demonstration that is energized by people in a state of indentured servitude and use it to assert crackpot ideas.

By the way, the restrictions on development proposed will produce a poorer society where it's even harder to repay debts.

2011-10-15T23:05:00.001-04:00

What If the Alps Didn't Exist?

Was the development of freedom in Western Civilization due to the Alps? Mountainous areas tend to have less government than lowlands but in most civilizations the mountains tend to be on the periphery, with the result that freer areas can be dismissed as populated by barbarians. (We have a little bit of this kind of reaction to the US and, within the US, to the western US.) In the case of the Alps, we have a mountain range in the middle of the civilization, which makes it harder to dismiss.

There was another effect of the Alps. In the fifteenth century, it looked like absolute monarchy would be the wave of the future. In the absence of the Alps, Francesco Sforza or Charles the Bold (or some other megalomaniac) would have been able to expand. In another century or two, Europe might have been wall-to-wall absolute monarchies.

There's another point: We can't expect history to work the same way on different planets. If we encounter extraterrestrials, they might model their reactions on their equivalent of Louis the XIVth.

2011-10-10T23:52:00.002-04:00

If Student Loans Are Non-Bankruptable

If student loans are non-bankruptable, would they be an example of indentured servitude?

Meanwhile, an earlier bout of student activism was stopped by abolishing the draft. I suspect the current bout can be stopped by allowing student debts to be discharged. This might also discourage lenders from making loans to people studying bulshytt (as Neal Stephenson would put it).

2011-10-09T21:56:00.004-04:00

Are Conservative White Males Are More Likely to Be Climate Skeptics?

Are conservative white males are more likely to be climate skeptics? (The original paper can be found here.) After all, everybody knows races are imaginary categories…

Addendum: Although this study doesn't qualify as a small-sample study, I noticed that the very first reference (which was needed to support their dubious interpretation of the results) was to the small-sample study I earlier discussed here.

2011-10-08T20:53:00.004-04:00

Brideshead Revisited and the Third Amendment

It looks like part of the plot of Brideshead Revisited includes what would be a violation of the Third Amendment in the United States.

2011-10-07T00:38:00.003-04:00

Lewis Carroll on Occupy Wall Street

According to Lewis Carroll:

A SURD is a radical whose meaning cannot be exactly ascertained. This class comprises a very large number of particles.

2011-10-06T23:50:00.002-04:00

A Common Assumption on the Left

I've noticed what I think is a common assumption on the Left: The amount of government is approximately constant. As a result, political controversies can never be about the amount of government but only about who gets to be in charge.

This explains their beliefs that deregulation goes along with fascism, that anarchism goes along with socialism, or that corporations and property rights are necessarily creatures of government. It might even explain their belief (during the Cold War) that Amerikkka was just as totalitarian as the Soviets.

This might also explain their tendency to overemphasize the importance of regulations that they don't like. To take just one example, they will assume that the Price–Anderson Act was responsible for nuclear energy even though the cost of major nuclear accidents is around ⅕¢ per kilowatt-hour.

2011-10-05T22:56:00.004-04:00

What Counts as Cyberbullying?

According to four [expletive deleted]s in the New York State Senate (seen via the Volokh Conspiracy):

AND YET, PROPONENTS OF A MORE REFINED FIRST AMENDMENT ARGUE THAT THIS FREEDOM SHOULD BE TREATED NOT AS A RIGHT BUT AS A PRIVILEGE — A SPECIAL ENTITLEMENT GRANTED BY THE STATE ON A CONDITIONAL BASIS THAT CAN BE REVOKED IF IT IS EVER ABUSED OR MALTREATED.

Remember, IF IT'S IN ALL-CAPS, IT'S TRUE!

I have a better idea. How about the following principle:

State formation should be treated not as a right but as a privilege — a special entitlement granted by potential rulers, subjects, or citizens on a conditional basis that can be revoked if it is ever abused or maltreated.

Yes, I think preventing bullying is an excellent idea. I also think such laws are more likely to be used by bullies against the rest of us.

Meanwhile, could a post like this be cited for violating anti-cyberbullying laws?
Almost certainly.

2011-10-02T23:56:00.001-04:00

A Suggestion for Riot Control

There's a simple way to stop the “Occupation of Wall Street” without police brutality: Make it legal for motorists to run over rioters. This is in accordance with the “a pack not a herd” principle.

2011-10-01T23:59:00.003-04:00

Open to an Inflated Self Image

On Small Sample Watch I posted a quote about research that purports to show that some people who take psychedelics become more “open.” When we look at the questions used to test openness, we find:

I have a rich vocabulary.

I have a vivid imagination.

I have excellent ideas.

I am quick to understand things.

I use difficult words.

I spend time reflecting on things.

I am full of ideas.

I am not interested in abstractions. (reversed)

I do not have a good imagination. (reversed)

I have difficulty understanding abstract ideas. (reversed)^[31]

Maybe we can replace many of the above items with:

I have an inflated self image.

2011-10-01T21:25:00.001-04:00

If You're Visiting from The Long View

The post you are looking for is here.

2011-09-27T00:15:00.004-04:00

Small Sample Watch No. 1

After complaining about pathetically-small samples recently, I'm starting a new feature: Every time I see a news report of a social-“science” study with a pathetically-small sample that mainly serves to confirm standard prejudices, I'll post a link and sometimes a quote. The first example:

According to a new study at the University of St. Gallen seen by SPIEGEL, one contributing factor may be that stockbrokers' behavior is more reckless and manipulative than that of psychopaths. Researchers at the Swiss research university measured the readiness to cooperate and the egotism of 28 professional traders who took part in computer simulations and intelligence tests. The results, compared with the behavior of psychopaths, exceeded the expectations of the study's co-authors, forensic expert Pascal Scherrer, and Thomas Noll, a lead administrator at the Pöschwies prison north of Zürich.

28???

Addendum: I have decided that Small Sample Watch is worthy of its own blog.

2011-09-26T23:57:00.002-04:00

All the Cool Nations Are Doing This …

One of the commonest arguments in favor of a wide variety of industrial policies is the “all the cool nations are doing this” argument. This argument is one of the best reasons for not imitating the allegedly-cool nations.

If nobody is doing X, it might make sense to try doing X just to see if it can be done (Example: the Manhattan project). If just one nation is doing X, it might make sense to follow them to prevent a monopoly. (Example: the space race). If everybody is doing X, then we can buy X (if it really is worthwhile) from a variety of sources. What's more, we'll be competing with lots of subsidized industries, which is a good way to lose money. (Example: solar panels.)

It's not a coincidence that Solyndra, a company in one of the coolest fields around, went bankrupt.

2011-09-25T23:46:00.004-04:00

Debate Wanted

When the topic is free will, it is common to claim that minor influences show that free will doesn't exist.

When the topic is regulation, it is common to claim that “nudges” are a way to improve society without coercion.

Question: Are these “nudges” coercive or not?

Question 2: Do the investigators have free will or are they merely responding to unconscious nudges? (On the other hand, it may be dangerous to investigate that.)

Question 3: Is it my imagination or do the anti-free-will studies all seem to have pathetically-small sample sizes?

2011-09-24T21:21:00.001-04:00

They Made Shark Tale about the Wrong Species

It looks like porpoises are the real sea thugs. (ObSF: Startide Rising by David Brin.)

2011-09-23T01:46:00.003-04:00

Have Tachyons Been Observed?

If tachyons have been observed, can we use them to build an antitelephone and send a message to 2008 Obama voters?

2011-09-22T23:46:00.003-04:00

The Squeegee Government

There used to be a common scam in Manhattan done by the squeegee men:

The usual procedure would involve groups of squeegee men surrounding cars stopped in traffic. Although some were merely providing a service, in other cases the windshield-washing would be carried out without asking, often perfunctory in nature, and then make demands for payment, sometimes with added threats of smashing the car's windshield if their demands were not.

In other words, someone does an unasked-for favor (sometimes even a useful one) and then charges for it.

In related news, Elizabeth Warren has been quoted as saying:

There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody. You built a factory out there -- good for you.

But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory.

Now look. You built a factory and it turned into something terrific or a great idea -- God bless! Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.

I was reminded somehow.

On the other hand, there is a simple way to test if the Elizabeth Warren story is correct. Let state governments make the investments that Ms. Warren regards as essential to wealth. (Most of their benefits won't cross state lines.) If expansive government is so important, we can expect that states with more government services will grow faster.